The NL MVP race has come down to the wire. Ronald Acuna Jr and Mookie Betts will continue to battle it out in Los Angeles tonight for the third game of a four-game series. The Braves have taken the first two games thanks to current MVP leader Ronald Acuna Jr’s home run in each game. If you’re looking to put some money on Mookie Betts to overcome Acuna and take home the MVP, you can find the best odds on BetRivers at +120 while all major books like FanDuel and DraftKings have him listed at +115. Tonight, expect more than just those hitters to load up the box score. Let’s dive into our best bet for Braves-Dodgers on Saturday, September 2.
Best Braves-Dodgers Bet for Saturday, September 2
Braves-Dodgers Pick
When: 9:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Over/Under: 9.5 at FanDuel
The first two games of the series went to the Atlanta Braves thanks to Los Angeles Dodgers newcomer Lance Lynn finally letting up on Thursday. He allowed seven earned runs in less than five innings of work. On Friday night, Braves southpaw Max Fried was magical. He allowed just five baserunners in seven innings for his best start of his season. If that’s the Max Fried the Braves are getting the rest of the season, let’s just give them the pennant.
Let’s move forward to today’s starters. Bryce Elder will take the mound for Atlanta while the Dodgers will throw out RHP Emmet Sheehan who was just called up yesterday to make the 40-man roster. Elder, an All-Star this season, is fortunate to have 11 wins this season. His xBA% and xERA% both rank in the bottom half of all MLB pitchers. He lacks much of any strikeout stuff which ranks in the bottom 13% of the MLB and has a bottom 30% chase rate. The books aren’t expecting much of an elite showing from Elder tonight. The vig is on the under 3.5 strikeouts while his earned run prop is set at 2.5 with vig on the over. It also doesn’t help that this will be Elder’s second matchup against the Dodgers this season. He luckily allowed just one run over eight hits in his first outing. Don’t expect him to get that same luck tonight in Los Angeles where the wind will be blowing out.
Emmet Sheehan’s advanced metrics scream just as loud. He ranks poorly in just about every category and has a 5.63 ERA this season. We can expect the Dodgers to be extremely cautious with Sheehan tonight. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since August 3 and now has to face the best lineup in all of baseball. Sheehan will most likely exit before he has to see Acuna or the top of the order the third time around. The bullpen for the Dodgers has been nothing short of spectacular in the first two games of the series but both offenses should shine in what is anticipated to be a beautiful night in Los Angeles.
As of publication, all major books are laying the over/under at 10 runs, but you can find 9.5 on BetMGM under “Full Game Totals”. I’m willing to lay the juice there instead of potentially getting a push if the game ends at 10 runs.
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Best Braves-Dodgers Bet: Over 9.5 Runs -120 at BetMGM
