Apple TV’s national game for Friday is a National League battle between two teams in the Dodgers and Mets that are wanting more out of the season — albeit to different degrees. Ahead of the matchup, we are going to hit up OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best Dodgers-Mets bets for Friday, which comes in the form of a player prop on a pitcher who simply is not getting it done away from home. Let’s take a look at some MLB predictions for the NL showdown.
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Best MLB Dodgers-Mets Bet & Prediction: Julio Urias on the Road
MLB Free Picks: Dodgers-Mets Odds
Odds via PointsBet Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers: -115 | New York Mets: -105
Over 8.5: -105 | Under 8.5: -115
TV Network: Apple TV+
The national TV audience for Dodgers-Mets gets to witness a matchup between two underachieving pitchers in Julio Urias and Justin Verlander. While Verlander has started turning things around of late, Urias is struggling to put up the numbers of his two previous season, both of which produced him solid finishes in Cy Young voting. Early in the season, Urias was striking out batters more consistently, but then he started getting hit hard. He dropped his strikeout numbers and started righting the ship by pitching to contact.
But in his last three starts, Urias twice surrendered five-plus earned runs in just three innings, striking out just 11 batters total through these three games — eight of which came in one start last time out. So a pitcher who was once among the steadiest in the National League has now become entirely unpredictable.
For tonight, Urias is getting a strikeout line of 4.5 against a patient Mets team that has the league’s sixth-lowest strikeout rate and 10th-highest walk rate. What is more, he has to face them on the road, where his strikeout rate is just 18.3% — compared to 28.6% at home — and he is allowing an OPS nearly double that of what he surrenders at Dodger Stadium. All told, Urias has made six starts on the road this year and went over 4.5 in two of them. He has also exited before finishing the fourth inning in three road starts. This is not a great environment for a pitcher who goes from a strong starter to one of the worst in baseball once he leaves home.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Urias below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for under 4.5 Urias strikeouts at +106, so this over is beating the market at +115. This is around a 50-50 prop in terms of expected win rate, but the plus money is pushing the under to a strong 4% EV on OddsShopper and a recommended bet size of $13. This gives Urias’ under the top value spot for Friday night’s Dodgers-Mets game.
Best Dodgers-Mets MLB Bet: Julio Urias Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, PointsBet)
