The New York Mets come into Chicago on a five-game winning streak and are back where they belong. Right behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings. Meanwhile, the Cubs are three and seven in their last 10 ten games but 23-year-old Christopher Morel is the talk around town. The power-hitting righty headlines our top Mets-Cubs bet. Be sure to check out all the +EV bets using OddsShopper’s tools.
Mets-Cubs Bet: Christopher Morel O/U 0.5 Hits
Has this prop hit in every game of Christopher Morel’s young season? Yes. So why is it playable on three out of four major books? Well, Morel’s opponent tonight is Kodai Senga. Senga ranks in the tenth percentile in BB%. His command is atrocious and kills hitters’ chances of recording a hit. But, Senga shouldn’t be in this game long. His outs prop is favoring 16.5 with vig on the under. Morel will hit near the middle of the order because of his pop so he should see at least four plate appearances. He’s hit eight home runs in 11 games already this season.
Even with Senga being a right-hander, right-handed bats hit him better. They have a .247 batting average while left-handers bat below .200. Morel, on the other hand, has 14 hits in 37 at-bats against right-handers.
OddsShopper Premium gives this prop a 57% expected win percentage and a +3% EV. DraftKings has this prop set at -135 while FanDuel has -165.
Best Mets-Cubs Bet: Christopher Morel Over 0.5 Hits (-125, BetMGM)
Editor’s Note: Kodai Senga has been replaced as New York’s starter. Tylor Megill will take his place.
