Do you love home runs? I do. No play is more exciting during the summer, and OddsShopper’s market-based model is here to help. Our tools can help you identify off-market or mispriced home run odds, which, in the long run, is how you turn a profit. Let’s attack the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today, which include Corey Seager. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox | 10 p.m. ET on ESPN
We’ll target both L.A. teams in different ways tonight. I’ve already written columns about this game and tonight’s player prop markets, but we’re also going to get some action on Freddie Freeman to just straight up hit a home run.
Freeman has one career hit against Chicago’s starter, RHP Mike Clevinger (3-4). It was a home run. Freeman, a left-handed batter, benefits from this matchup — Clevinger has allowed six home runs to left-handed batters this year and an OPS of .833. Even if Clevinger exits early, the White Sox used two of their three LHPs last night, ensuring Freeman will get some extra chances against RHPs.
Freeman can knock around both right- and left-handed pitchers. He owns an elite OPS of .936 against righties this year, which is actually below his career average of .943. Although the power hasn’t always been there for him against righties so far this year, the math suggests it should show up eventually.
The Dodgers will play this one at home, which should help Freeman’s chances as well. Dodger Stadium ranks second in park factors for home runs over the last three seasons. It ranks fourth for home runs to left-handed batters.
The best price for this home run bet is available at FanDuel, where we can find it at odds of +420. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this one at only +393. If you’re yet to register at FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +420 FanDuel
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels | 8 p.m. ET
Now that I’ve gotten my pick out of the way, let’s get into one of the best market-based options. Several stand out from today’s early games, but because those get underway early, I’ll focus on one from the late slate. Note that 16 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The model is honing in on Corey Seager from the Texas Rangers. Seager will take on LHP Reid Detmers (1-5), who has allowed five home runs in 56.1 innings pitched this year. Counterintuitively, left-handed hitters like Seager have knocked Detmers around for a .928 OPS this season. This is consistent with trends throughout Detmers’ career — lefties have an OPS of .731 against him versus .728 for righties.
But OddsShopper’s market-based reasoning doesn’t even need to get lost in the weeds on the minutiae of Detmers’ splits. The tool indexes odds across the market, staggers their value based on the quality of the book in question and generates a fair price for each wager. With Seager listed at only +310 (24.4%) to hit a home run at Pinnacle, the model thinks a fair price for this bet is +384 (20.6%).
So are any books offering longer odds than the fair price for Seager today? Yes. We can buy Seager to hit a home run at odds of +420 (19.2%) at FanDuel. Since the model believes this play should hit 20.6% of the time, we’re getting 7% EV. For information on appropriate bet sizing for this wager, check out OddsShopper Premium!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Corey Seager +420 FanDuel
