Our lone televised MLB player prop hit yesterday, cashing a +112 ticket on Chase Anderson for all who tailed. We’ve got another limited set of televised baseball action today, with an early Athletics-Tigers battle on ESPN+ followed by the Cardinals-Marlins game on FS1. I’ve got one MLB player prop pick for today’s televised action, OddsShopper’s model has another one, too, so let’s secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Paul Goldschmidt.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Paul Goldschmidt, Andy Ibanez
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics | 1:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Target: Andy Ibanez at BetMGM
Let’s begin with OddsShopper’s model. I have some thoughts of my own on today’s Tigers-Athletics game, but the best player prop on the market looks to involve infielder Andy Ibanez. Ibanez draws a matchup against LHP Hogan Harris, whose 5.17 ERA and 4.28 xERA don’t inspire too much confidence. Still, Ibanez is hitting only .228 on the year and .226 against LHPs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about matchup data or player statistics. It uses the odds set across the market to generate a fair price and adjust it for hold. Then, it checks if any sportsbooks have a number worse than the fair price, and that’s exactly what we’ve found with this Ibanez player prop.
The under on Ibanez’s total base prop sits at odds of -110 (52.4%) via BetMGM. OddsShopper’s calculations suggest a fair price for that prop is only -116 (53.7%). While this isn’t the biggest edge in the world, getting action on lines like this one en masse is profitable over the long term. The model recommends that bettors invest 1% of their bankroll into this prop.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Andy Ibanez Under 1.5 Total Bases -110 at BetMGM
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins | 6:40 p.m. ET on FS1
Isaiah’s Target: Paul Goldschmidt at DraftKings
Paul Goldschmidt eats same-handed pitchers for breakfast. The RHB will take on rookie RHP Eury Perez today, and the 20-year-old’s last outing saw him last a whole 0.1 innings against the Atlanta Braves after he surrendered seven hits, two home runs and six earned runs. Perez’s impressive 2.47 ERA isn’t sustainable relative to his 3.59 xERA, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) allowed of .297 ties him for 111th among eligible pitchers. The youngster may have started his major-league career off well, but he’s unlikely to keep producing at his current rates.
Goldschmidt leads the Cardinals’ bats in xwOBA at .386. His actual weighted on-base average of .367 also leads the team, but unlike Nolan Arenado and Jordan Walker, he has underperformed relative to his expected stats and should benefit from positive regression at some point. Goldschmidt has 70 hits and 29 extra-base hits against RHPs so far this season, good for a .902 OPS. He racked up 132 hits and 53 extra-base hits against RHPs last year, which helped him record a .893 OPS.
We can lock in Goldschmidt to record over 1.5 bases at odds of +115 (46.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. He doesn’t have an extra-base hit this series but recorded two singles in the opening matchup between these teams. Miami’s LoanDepot Park may rank only 26th in park factors for RHBs, but it ranks 15th for doubles and fifth for triples. That’s more than enough value for me to lock a unit in on this MLB player prop pick to watch today.
Best MLB Player Prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings
