It is Thursday, Sept. 15, and while football is heating up, baseball has a few weeks left of regular season action. Action is limited tonight, but even with only eight games, there are enough places to go for the best MLB prop bets today.
If there is a game or a spot you are excited about, BetMGM is offering a RISK-FREE BET up to $1,000.
This article will have the best picks according to Stokastic models to give you the best chance to win. OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Expert Betting Picks 9/15
Kevin Gausman O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Kevin Gausman takes the mound today to face the Tampa Bay Rays at home. On the season, Gausman has a 28.2% strikeout rate and averages 1.18 strikeouts per inning, pacing him for 5.1 innings to reach six strikeouts. Against right-handed pitching, Tampa Bay is tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate (23.8%.) Gausman has gone over this total in five straight starts and in 17 of 27 starts this season.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kevin Gausman OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)
Daniel Lynch O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Daniel Lynch will pitch to the Minnesota Twins in Minnesota tonight. Based on his averages — 20.5% strikeout rate and 0.94 strikeouts per inning — he needs to go 5.1 innings to hit the over. He has gone 5.1 innings or more in seven of 23 total starts, and he has gone over this total in 11 of 23 starts. He has pitched to the Twins four times this season. In 20 innings against them, he has totaled 12 strikeouts. The Twins have the 19th-highest strikeout rate to left-handed pitchers at 21.1%, and there’s a strong chance Lynch will stay under the total tonight.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Daniel Lynch UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Noah Syndergaard O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Noah Syndergaard and his 17% strikeout rate are facing the Miami Marlins tonight. It is strange to see, but Syndergaard averages just 0.72 strikeouts per inning, and it takes him on average 5.2 innings to reach four strikeouts. Against right-handed pitching, Miami has the 11th-highest strikeout rate in baseball (22.9%).
Syndergaard has gone over this total in 12 of 22 starts but has gone under this total in two of his last three. In two previous outings against Miami, he has struck out 12 batters in 11 innings, including four batters in six innings and eight batters in five innings. This prop is juiced up, but Syndergaard is more likely to go over this total than stay under.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Noah Syndergaard OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Salvador Perez O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Salvador Perez will see Dylan Bundy and the Minnesota Twins bullpen tonight. Perez has had an up-and-down season and has missed quite a few games. He has just a .279 on-base percentage, but his .208 ISO is still strong despite being down from .271 last year. Bundy has a 4.60 xFIP and allows 1.39 HR/9 and a 37.3% hard-hit rate. Perez has not hit a home run in a little over a week, and this seems like a good spot for him to get back on track. The Sharp Sportsbook Lines give this bet a 9% expected ROI.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280)
Carlos Correa O/U 1.5 Total Bases | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Carlos Correa has had a solid season, with a .358 on-base percentage and a .183 ISO. His power is a bit down from his career .201 ISO, but his on-base percentage is right in line with his .356 career mark. Lynch has a 4.41 xFIP and allows 1.37 HR/9 and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. Correa has a .384 wOBA and .226 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season. This is a good spot for him to get to two bases.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Carlos Correa OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
