Baseball’s official start of the work week comes on Tuesday, with a full slate featuring the entire league. That also means more choices to bet No Run First Inning and Yes Run First Inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays, including targeting some of the hottest offenses across both leagues. There is nothing quite like the first inning sweat; the entire game is boiled down to the best hitters versus starters. Let’s identify the best NRFI value while targeting vulnerability in lineups or starting pitching to build on our 56-45 season-long record.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles YRFI (-115)
The Reds are probably the best microcosm for why this bet makes the most sense. Cincinnati was on a tear but has dropped three straight as a result of its pitching being unable to stop massive bleeding. Getting a bunch of runs is great, but you have to limit the opposition. The rain delay will not factor in much to tonight’s play, but what absolutely will is the team’s inability to balance its run differential. As potent of an offense as Cincinnati’s is, the Reds are just as likely to surrender a run. Andrew Abbott makes his fifth start this season, and despite striking out 10 Rockies batters last outing, Abbott still allowed a first inning run. Tyler Wells counters for Baltimore and will have to rely heavily on his 26.3% strikeout rate to handle the Reds top third of the lineup. Wells will not be good enough at the start to limit baserunners, so expect scoring chances in both halves of the inning.
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves NRFI (-105)
Facing Ronald Acuna is arguably the most difficult task across the National League. The good thing for the Twins is they have Joe Ryan on the mound to just get three scoreless outs on the road. They can be loud outs, just nothing that yields a run. Ryan’s 27.3% stellar strikeout rate is just a complementary piece to his refusal to walk anyone — with a dominant 4.1% walk rate. He is fully equipped to avoid any early mistakes with this tough road start, but he is up to the task. Bryce Elder will take the mound for Atlanta and faces a favorable matchup in Minnesota’s top third of their lineup. Elder’s strikeout rate sits just south of 21%, but the Twins have plenty of strikeouts lurking in their order. Shout out to OddsShopper’s own Isaiah Sirois for jumping on Elder’s strikeout props in the OddsShopper Discord. It feels even better to be on the NRFI here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies NRFI (+150)
This bet comes down to risk versus reward on one player. It truly boils down to whether or not Connor Seabold will destroy this bet. He has the juice now. The other side is rather easy to judge. Yes, the game is played in a ballpark seemingly without gravity, but that does not guarantee moonshots every night — or inning. Clayton Kershaw should have little to no trouble with Colorado, as he is already dealing this year, with a 28.5% strikeout rate to a 6.4% walk rate. The Rockies simply are not good enough to out-hit that, even with their best hitters at the top of the lineup. Back to Seabold, he is the key because we are essentially betting against a 16.7% strikeout rate. A saving grace in these bets with a pitcher like Seabold is a significantly lower walk rate. He has that — limiting walks with a 6.4% rate on the season. It is enough to offer more than just hope at Coors Field.
