The Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies will do battle in the second game of a three-game series early on Tuesday evening. Both teams are expected to trot out solid starting pitchers in RHP Kyle Gibson and RHP Taijuan Walker. Baltimore continues to lead the AL East as of Monday evening and will look to build its lead with another win. Let’s dig into today’s Orioles-Phillies odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Orioles-Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction: Trust Both Pitchers Today
Orioles-Phillies Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Orioles: +124 | Phillies: -146
Orioles +1.5: -164 | Phillies -1.5: +136
Over 9.5: -115 | Under 9.5: -105
I chalk the pitching battle up as a tie. Baltimore will start RHP Kyle Gibson on Tuesday. Gibson’s 4.76 ERA and 4.68 xERA don’t inspire much confidence, yet he has a solid 9-6 record. The Phillies will start RHP Taijuan Walker, whose 4.11 ERA and 3.97 xERA are slightly better. But while Philadelphia may have an edge early, Baltimore has an edge in the bullpen — the Orioles rank sixth in bullpen ERA (3.69), which puts them ahead of the 13th-ranked Phillies (3.82).
Baltimore has a slight edge in the batter’s box. Although the Orioles may trail only the Braves in some power rankings, that doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. Their offense is still tied for 12th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) with the Red Sox and Giants at .323. That’s enough to edge out the 18th-ranked Phillies at .315, but not by much. The Phillies fare slightly better at home than on the road, as their team OPS ticks up from .736 to .740, but that shouldn’t move the needle. The Orioles have the same OPS on the road (.741) as they do at home.
After getting cooked by the O’s early in the year, the sportsbooks have started to adjust Baltimore’s totals. The Orioles are still 50-41-8 (55%) to the over, so blindly backing them would have yielded a profit, but this is the perfect spot to fade their offense — the Phillies are 50-40-9 (55.6%) to the under, 23-17-5 (57.5%) to the under at home and 20-12-4 (62.5%) to the under as a home favorite. The Orioles are a plucky 27-17-5 (61.4%) as a road team, but that dips slightly to 19-13-1 (59.4%) when they are road dogs.
The books hadn’t settled on a total for this one as of publication. FanDuel had it at 9.5 with the under priced at -105 (51.2%), but DraftKings had it set to just 9 with the under also priced at -105. The 9.5 just feels a bit high, so getting it for the same price as what a competitor book is selling the 9 for should prove sharp. If this market inefficiency disappears before Tuesday’s game, I recommend playing the under 9.5 down to -115 (53.5%).
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Best Orioles-Phillies MLB Pick: Under 9.5 -105 at FanDuel
