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Categories MLB

Best Pirates-Brewers MLB Bet & Prediction: Milwaukee Can Smell NL Central Lead (August 3)

August 03, 2023 | 3:38 PM by Sam Smith

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The Pirates-Brewers game headlines national TV Thursday, as it will be aired to a wide audience on FOX. The Brewers are only a half game back of the Reds for the NL Central lead, and though the Pirates are mostly in development mode, they can play spoiler as they travel to Milwaukee. Ahead of the division clash, we will turn to the OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets for this matchup. Let’s dive into the best Pirates-Brewers bets for Thursday.

Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.

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Best MLB Pirates-Brewers Bet & Prediction: William Contreras

Odds via PointsBet
Pittsburgh Pirates: +110| Milwaukee Brewers: -130
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -190 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: +160
Over 8.5: -115| Under 8.5: -105
TV: FOX

The Brewers are hosting the ace of the Pirates staff, albeit one who has started falling off the last month or so. With three blowup starts this month, Mitch Keller’s metrics do not look quite as All-Star worthy as they did in June. He is, however, still the Pirates best starter by a wide margin, with a solid 3.81 FIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. More importantly, Keller is absolutely shutting down same-handed hitters, with righties recording just a .292 slugging and .080 ISO against him.

That is a key factor in the top prop for this game, as William Contreras has a 1.5 total bases line for this matchup. He is slugging a solid .449 and has a decent .172 this year, and though his average and 27 multi-hit game suggest that there is a path to exceeding 1.5 total bases via a couple singles, Keller’s ability to limit extra-base power helps this under a lot. Contreras is also considerably worse against right-handed pitching, with his slugging dropping 250 points and his ISO nearly 200 points in same-handed matchups. Everything points to Keller being able to limit Contreras in this one.

Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Contreras below:

OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Contreras under 1.5 total bases at -171, so this bet is beating the market at -160. It is also getting a solid 3% and 63% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $15. As such, Contreras’ total bases under earns the top value spot for Thursday’s Pirates-Brewers game.

Best Pirates-Brewers MLB Bet: William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160, PointsBet)

Categories MLB
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Sam Smith

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015 while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With OddsShopper, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with OddsShopper's data to bring you the best betting information possible.

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