In a battle in the NL Central cellar, the Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds tonight in Illinois. Both teams have struggled to start the season and trail the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers by at least 4.5 games. Let’s get into the betting odds for Saturday night’s Reds-Cubs game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re backing Chicago’s offense after Cincinnati held them scoreless on Friday.
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Best MLB Reds-Cubs Bet & Prediction: Chicago’s Bats Bounce Back
Cincinnati Reds-Chicago Cubs Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Cincinnati Reds: +150 | Chicago Cubs: -175
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
The Cubs are favored on the betting markets despite starting a struggling RHP Jameson Taillon (0-3). Taillon owns an 8.10 ERA and a 6.07 xERA. He slots in at 50.1 in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score, which puts him slightly below the division average. The Reds will start LHP Brandon Williamson (0-0), who owns a 3.60 ERA across 10 two starts and innings pitched. Williamson held the Colorado Rockies to only one earned run across 5.2 innings pitched in his MLB debut but allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to plate four across 4.1 innings pitched in his second start.
Although the Cubs may not have an edge on the mound, they should have one at the plate. The Cubs rank seventh in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .330. That slots in slightly above their expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .325, but it isn’t so far ahead that regression should undermine them later in the year. The Reds rank 18th in wOBA at .314 but a lowly 29th in xwOBA at .301, which suggests their offense has benefited significantly from playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
The splits also favor the Cubs. Chicago owns a .815 OPS against left-handed pitchers like Williamson, while Cincinnati owns a .695 OPS against right-handed pitchers like Taillon. Further, Cincinnati’s OPS dips from .723 at home to just .697 on the road. Chicago hits slightly worse at home but the team’s .728 OPS in Wrigley Field still outpaces what Cincinnati has put together away from Great American Ballpark. Although the Reds stomped the Cubs in a 9-0 game on Friday, they won’t have ace RHP Hunter Greene on the mound today to shut down Chicago’s offense.
Chicago’s offense is off to a slightly unsustainable hot start this season, but their recent scoring slump is more unsustainable. The Cubs have totaled just five runs over their last three games, so look for them to get the scoring going again tonight. DraftKings Sportsbook has set Chicago’s team total to only 4.5 runs, and we can buy the over for -115. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at -117. That isn’t a ton of edge, but we’re getting enough value here in a bounce-back spot for the Cubs that I’m willing to pounce.
Best Reds-Cubs MLB Bet: Cubs Over 4.5 -115 at DraftKings
