This is on paper the most lopsided game of the slate, as the Rays are the biggest favorites of the day at -275 on the moneyline. They are throwing their most recent addition to the starting rotation today, and the Rockies are just trying to claim some sense of competitiveness away from their home ballpark. That is leading to some solid value in one particular area in the OddsShopper Premium Tool. Let’s not waste any time; here is the best Rockies-Rays bet for Wednesday.
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Best MLB Rockies-Rays Prop Bet & Prediction: Aaron Civale
Odds via FanDuel
Colorado Rockies: +225| Tampa Bay Rays: -275
Colorado Rockies -1.5: +102 | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5: -122
Over 8.0: -115 | Under 8.0: -105
Civale has been a solid pickup for the Rays since they brought him over from Cleveland at the trade deadline. Through three starts, Civale has allowed just five total earned runs and Tampa has gone 2-1 in those games. And though he is averaging only about five innings per start in those three, the matchup tonight suggests Civale has a strong chance to finish the sixth.
The Rockies are one of baseball’s worst offensive teams away from home. Without the park boost of Coors Field, Colorado has just a .656 team OPS and strikes out a whopping 27.4% of the time. And though Civale is far from a strikeout pitcher, those struggles on the road bode especially well for someone who pitches to contact. The Rockies’ average exit velocity and hard hit rate are both near the bottom of baseball, and they are averaging just two runs per game over their last five on the road.
All told, Civale has finished the sixth in exactly half his games. With the matchup boost and a better shot at pitching with the lead now that he is on an elite team, Civale’s odds of recording at least 18 outs are getting a bump in the OddsShopper projections.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Civale below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Civale over 17.5 pitching outs at -149, so even with the juice at -140, this bet is beating the market. It is also getting a solid 3% EV and 60% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $13. As a result, Civale’s over on 17.5 pitching outs earns the top value spot for Wednesday’s Rockies-Rays game.
Best Rockies-Rays MLB Bet: Aaron Civale Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140, FanDuel)
