The high elevation has always been a problem when the Colorado Rockies travel to and from Denver. They’ll do just that on Monday, heading to Boston to take on the Red Sox for the first game of a three game series. Boston will be traveling home from New York and should be a lot fresher than the visiting Rockies. Travel and fatigue is one factor to explore in this one, but ultimately we can use the betting markets to see if there’s a specific edge to be exploited in the opening lines. Let’s look at the betting offs for Monday’s Rockies-Red Sox game to make our MLB prediction and best bet.
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Best MLB Rockies-Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction: Paxton Comeback Tour Continues
Rockies-Red Sox Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Rockies: +205 | Red Sox: -250
Over 10.0: -122 | Under 10.0: +100
The moneyline in this game is pretty lopsided. The travel issues for Colorado is one reason, as is the overall talent of their roster. But the biggest factor plaguing the Rockies heading into Monday night’s game is simply their starting pitcher. Connor Seabold takes the hill for the Rockies and his numbers are not pretty. The righty has a 5.10 ERA in seven starts and seven relief appearances this year. That is an improvement from his season numbers at the end of May. Seabold has thrown back-to-back quality starts, including his last outing in Coors Field against the San Francisco Giants. If you take away his last two outings, Seabold has been tagged the entirety of the 2023 season.
Sometimes leaving Coors Field can be a boon for SPs, but the upgrade is minor given how friendly Fenway Park is to hitters. If anyone knows that it is Seabold, who had cups of coffee with the Red Sox organization in 2022 and 2021. His lack of success has this game’s total at Over/Under ten runs and the Rockies moneyline at a whopping 2:1.
James Paxton starts across from Seabold, and his story could not be more different. He was the Seattle’s Mariners ace for several years before going down with a serious arm injury. Paxton pitched for the Yankees in 2019 and returned to the Mariners afterwards but could never get his career back on track. Now 34-years old, things might finally be turning around for Paxton. His comeback with the Boston Red Sox has going incredibly well despite long odds for his return. Paxton has a 3.81 ERA in five starts and has struck out 36 batters in 26 IP.
All signs point to Boston winning this game, which is why we’re seeing the moneyline at that exorbitant price. But storylines and statistics aside, the OddsShopper market-based betting model is still finding value in one spot. The Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s just a fraction too low, leaving a bit of value on their side. The model finds the sharpest sportsbooks in every bet type and then identifies where the industry is off. This bet has just under a 1% ROI, so while you’re certainly justified in making the bet, you won’t want to wager a significant portion of your bank roll. However, it’s a tool in the arsenal of volume based bettors and a great way to get started with OddsShopper’s sharp market tool.
Best Rockies-Red Sox MLB Pick: Red Sox -1.5 Run Line (-122, FanDuel)
