The struggling Kansas City Royals will take on the surprisingly solid Miami Marlins tonight on FS1. Want some skin in the game? Let’s tackle the betting odds for Monday evening’s Royals-Marlins game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re riding with the underdogs in a bounce-back spot.
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Best MLB Royals-Marlins Bet & Prediction: Back the Underdogs Early
Royals-Marlins Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Royals: +134 | Marlins: -158
Over 8: -114 | Under 8: -106
The first game of this series will feature RHP Carlos Hernandez (0-3) for the Kansas City Royals and LHP Braxton Garrett (1-2) for the Miami Marlins. Hernandez owns a 4.76 ERA that slots in well above his 3.41 xERA. Garrett owns a 4.22 ERA that slots in well below his 5.16 xERA. With both pitchers set for regression in opposite directions, this is a spot to capitalize on a perceived pitching edge for the Marlins that may not actually exist.
The Marlins likely also have a perceived edge on offense, but this advantage is also less meaningful than it first appears. The Marlins rank 19th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .315; this number slots in above their 24th-ranked expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .312. The Royals rank 27th in wOBA at .298 but 16th in xwOBA at .322. Kansas City plays in a hitter-friendly park, so this reads as terrible luck.
The splits confirm my suspicion that Kansas City has some value today. Although the Royals own a worse OPS on the road (.644) than at home (.711), their OPS against left-handed pitchers (.730) like Garrett is far higher than what they’ve compiled against right-handed pitchers (.662). The Marlins have a lower OPS at home (.717) than on the road (.725). They also have a much lower OPS against right-handed hurlers like Hernandez (.695) than left-handed ones (.797).
The Royals should get out to a solid start on Monday evening. They have fared well against lefties this year, and their starting pitcher should find his footing after a worse-than-expected start to the year. We can buy Kansas City to win or tie the first five innings at odds of -106 (51.5%) via FanDuel. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has that line available for -111 (52.6%). If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Royals-Marlins MLB Bet: Royals F5 +0.5 -106 at FanDuel
