After a lengthy absence, the longest-tenured member of the New York Yankees, Luis Severino, will return to the mound Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds. The Yankees will look to continue their climb out of the AL East basement, while the Reds appear content to flounder in the NL Central. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Sunday morning’s Yankees-Reds action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re backing Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers early.
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Best Yankees-Reds Bet & Prediction: Trust Aaron Judge in Cincinnati
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Yankees: -148 | Cincinnati Reds: +126
Over 9: -110 | Under 9: -110
Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, the second-friendliest park for hitters over the last three seasons, will host an intriguing pair of pitchers on Sunday morning. The Yankees will trot out RHP Luis Severino (0-0), who hasn’t started a game for them since last year. Severino has struggled with injuries since 2018 but started 19 games in 2021 and recorded a respectable 3.18 ERA. The Reds will start RHP Hunter Greene (0-3), a 23-year-old with a 4.61 ERA. While his 4.23 xERA suggests that his actual ERA is a bit inflated, it’s still a concern, especially against the Bronx Bombers.
So what should we expect from Severino? He has made a pair of minor-league appearances his year. He recorded a 5.40 ERA across 3.1 innings pitched for the AA Somerset Patriots and a 2.70 ERA across another 3.1 innings pitched for the AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. Those aren’t perfect numbers, but they’re good enough for bettors not to enter Sunday’s contest with too many concerns about Severino’s form. Severino recorded a 3.18 ERA in the majors last year and should perform at a similar level this season.
Severino gives New York an advantage on the mound, but the team’s stacked batting order presents another meaningful advantage. Although Giancarlo Stanton remains out, Aaron Judge is healthy, and the Yankees have been scoring in bunches lately. New York ranks an impressive ninth in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .332, giving them a massive leg up over the last-place Cincinnati Reds (.300). Although New York has fared better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones, their OPS against righties (.720) is still better than Cincinnati’s (.704).
As long as Severino can deliver early, the Yankees should hold a lead after the first five innings of Sunday morning’s contest. New York ranks an admirable ninth in runs scored through the first five innings (2.74). Although Cincinnati ranks a respectable 15th (2.57) in the metric, the advanced stats point to offensive regression in the club’s future. Further, park factors likely play a role in their higher-than-expected average; their pitching has allowed the third-most runs scored through the first five innings (3.27), a number that ticks up to an MLB-high at home (4) as well.
Best Yankees-Reds MLB Bet: Yankees F5 -105 at FanDuel
