The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Guardians meet on national television Saturday night when Marcus Stroman takes the mound against Tanner Bibee on FOX (7:15 p.m. ET).
Both teams are floundering below .500 and walking the tightrope of possible playoff contender and August garage sale. The Guardians enjoy the benefit of playing in the AL Central and trail the first-place Minnesota Twins by just one game entering play Saturday. That’s despite a 39-42 record.
Meanwhile, the Cubs (38-42) are five games behind the Reds for the top spot in the NL Central with the Brewers and Pirates also in the way. This despite the Cubs being the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+32).
The Cubs are short favorites with Stroman on the mound, but there may be some concern over the right-hander after he left his last start with a blister. But a bigger deal than the blister might just be the matchup.
Cubs-Guardians Odds, Pick & Prediction: July 1
Cubs: -135
Guardians: +115
Total: 8 (over -105)
For this pick, we’re avoiding sides and totals and going with a player prop. It’s not the blister that has us fading Marcus Stroman; it’s a combination of the market and the matchup.
Let’s start with the matchup.
Stroman is not much of a strikeout pitcher, averaging exactly five per game with a 20.8 K%. FanGraphs expects him to hover around that number but slightly lower the rest of the season. He struck out at least five batters in four of his five June starts, his most recent outing being the exception.
Now he gets a matchup against the Guardians, one of the toughest teams to strikeout in baseball. Only the Nationals have fewer strikeouts this season than Cleveland.
The main market for Stroman’s strikeouts is either 4.5 or 3.5 depending on the sportsbook. The two sportsbooks hanging 4.5 are divided on the under. PointsBet has under 4.5 juiced to -170 while BetRivers has the same number priced at -210. That’s a huge difference in the market and one we want to take. Under 3.5 strikeouts is as low as 3.5 at FanDuel, so we aren’t afraid of the bigger price at the better number.
Best Cubs-Guardians Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 Strikeouts (PointsBet)
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