Happy Labor Day weekend! Who doesn’t want to start the weekend off with a party? The Prop Party parlay features up to five Player Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/2
Alex Cobb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies are going in opposite directions right now. The Giants have lost seven straight games as they have slowly fallen out of the playoff picture, while the Phillies have stormed up the rankings in a flurry. Giants starter Alex Cobb will look to turn the tides as he has put together another very strong season in terms of generating strikeouts. Cobb has a 24.5% strikeout rate, which is very close to his career-high 24.9% from last season. Over his last eight starts, Cobb has averaged 6.5 strikeouts per game while getting over this 4.5 strikeout prop line in seven of those games. The Phillies rank in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts this season, even in the month of August where they caught fire. Stokastic projects Cobb for a whopping 5.9 strikeouts with this over having an xWin rate of 70%, which is very high. No reason Cobb’s recent play should slow down in this spot.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Alex Cobb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Adrian Sampson O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Another strikeout prop where the xWin rate is very high is with the Chicago Cubs right-hander Adrian Sampson. Stokastic projects Sampson for 3.6 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 68% in this matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Getting to just three strikeouts for any starting pitcher is not asking a whole lot. Sampson has reached three or more strikeouts in nine of his 12 starts this season and has a 17.9% strikeout rate. The difficulty of this spot is the matchup against the Cardinals who had the third-lowest strikeout rate in August. This will be Sampson’s third start against the Cardinals, with splitting this prop through the first two. Don’t be intimidated by Sampson’s last two starts where he only went 61 pitches in both. He had gone over 100 in several starts prior, so if Sampson can pitch well tonight he should easily be able to get across this strikeout prop line given the amount of opportunities he will have to do so.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Adrian Sampson OVER 2.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Lance McCullers Jr. O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After missing several months of the season, the Houston Astros finally got one of their best starting pitchers back in the rotation with Lance McCullers Jr. Tonight will be his fourth straight start since returning and he has yet to top 91 pitches yet. No real rush to get McCullers back to full strength when the Astros are cruising on their way to the No. 1 seed in the American League. Seeing this strikeout prop at 5.5 was a bit surprising even given the matchup against the Angels, who love to strike out. McCullers is averaging 4.3 strikeouts per game and has only recorded six strikeouts in a start once since his return. Seeing this under strikeout prop having juice makes it arguably the best prop on the entire slate so adding it to the parlay is a no brainer. Stokastic projects McCullers for five strikeouts in this juicy matchup, which provides even more confidence to take the under tonight.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Lance McCullers Jr. UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Domingo German O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
New York Yankees right-hander Domingo German is another pitcher working his way back from injury. This will be German’s eighth start as he currently has a 2-2 record with a 3.19 ERA. Perfectly fine stats, but where German has shown to struggle is in the strikeout department. He has a career-low 17.8% strikeout rate, which is the lowest he has had in any season by at least 6%. The key factor seems to be his velocity dipping. German is averaging a 92.9 MPH fastball, which again is a career-low and nothing like where he once was. Five of German’s eight starts he has gone under 4.5 strikeouts, so even in a good strikeout matchup against the Tampa Bay, getting to five or more seems like a tough ask. Stokastic projects German for only 4.3 strikeouts, which is right around his average recently. A great matchup for German, but he’s lost a lot of juice with his pitches this season.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Domingo German UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Luis Castillo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Finally, Luis Castillo enters the chat with his very juiced over strikeout prop. Since being acquired by the Seattle Mariners in early August, Castillo has averaged 7.8 strikeouts per game. He has a very impressive 27.2% strikeout rate this season paired with a career-best 2.85 ERA. Going from the Reds to the Mariners was a huge move for Castillo because now his starts actually mean something as the Mariners are firmly in the playoff hunt. The matchup against the Cleveland Guardians who strike out the least from any other team is not ideal, but Castillo has shown very capable of getting over this strikeout prop line with ease. Stokastic projects Castillo for six strikeouts despite the tough matchup with an xWin rate on this over at 55%. Overall this prop party parlay has an xWin rate of 9% and an xROI at a very juice 156%! Let’s win some money going into Labor Day weekend!
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Luis Castillo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
