We’re picking a Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder, a Detroit Tigers infielder and a Cleveland Guardians switch-hitter for our best home run picks and bets today.
Home run props are often long shots, but they’re also fun to sweat. When thinking of them as low-risk, high-reward bets, they can make for an entertaining day. The other benefit to home run picks is that the market is often divided on odds, so there’s almost always value to be found.
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Today’s Home Run Picks & Bets: July 2
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
James Outman is going to hit one out, man.
He gets a matchup against Brady Singer, who is giving up a ton of contact this year with a declining strikeout rate. He’s done a little better at keeping the ball in the yard this year but he’s still allowed 10 home runs in 82 innings this year.
Outman’s hit seven of is nine home runs on the road and eight of his nine against righties. With his odds as short as +390 at Caesars, we have to take this value at +630 at FanDuel.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
A Sunday treat with Spencer Torkelson hitting second in the lineup against Connor Seabold in Coors Field. Most of Torkelson’s homers have come on the road and against right-handed pitching. Check and check.
It doesn’t matter who Seabold faces, he struggles to get them out. Right-handed hitters are slugging over .500 against him and 12 homers in 61.2 innings overall.
BetMGM has Torkelson’s odds set at +225. FanDuel is the only sportsbook above +300, which gives us enough of an edge to take a shot.
Josh Bell, Cleveland GuardiansÂ
Josh Bell has had incredible success against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon in his career with one home run in three at-bats. What, you wanted more than a 3 at-bat sample size? OK, fine.
Taillon is off to a terrible start in his first year with the Cubs. His HR/9 is the worst of his career. His Barrel% is also a career-worst. Of the 12 homers allowed this season, 10 have come to left-handed hitters.
Bell has done most of his damage as a left-handed hitter this year. He’s heating up a bit, too. He hit four homers in June after just four in April and May combined.
Once again, FanDuel is way off the mark on these odds. Caesars is +350 with FanDuel at +630. At almost double the price, hit this Bell bet before the odds move.
