The MLB playoffs are fast approaching, so we’re running out of time to get action on teams and players who won’t be playing in October. Tonight, I want action on a Padre to go yard, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a member of the Rockies. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Padres-Giants and Dodgers-Rockies. We’re riding with Jurickson Profar in Oracle Park this evening.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, Sept. 27
Padres-Giants Home Run Pick
When: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Isaiah’s Target: Jurickson Profar at DraftKings
We’re rapidly running out of baseball to bet on, and I’ve got to get some action on my favorite utility player, SH Jurickson Profar, before time runs out. Profar got DFA’d by the Colorado Rockies earlier this season, but the San Diego Padres picked him back up, and he has looked decent all season. Profar has mashed only nine actual and 8.7 expected home runs this year. His .245 xBA (37th percentile) and .345 xSLG (10th percentile) are below the league average as well, but tonight’s matchup against LHP Sean Manaea is a good spot to trust him.
For starters, the Padres could be eliminated from the MLB playoffs close to the time this game gets underway — they need the Chicago Cubs to lose to the Atlanta Braves, who have yet to lock up the top seed. But even if that doesn’t come to pass, the Padres kept Manny Machado on the bench last night despite still being in mathematical contention, and I expect them to do so again — leading Profar to have a spot in the starting lineup. Profar has a pair of home runs and is slashing .277/.349/.431 against LHPs. In 21 at-bats against Manaea, he has one home run and is slashing .333/.364/.667.
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Manaea has struggled with the long ball all year, and the 16.1 mph winds blowing out of Oracle Park tonight won’t help. The LHP has coughed up 13 actual and 14.5 expected home runs. His 4.37 xERA (42nd percentile) and .248 xBA (42nd percentile) are both below the league average. He has also struggled against opposite-handed batters, coughing up 11 home runs and a slash line of .247/.328/.439 to them. We can buy Profar at +900 (10%) via DraftKings to go yard and +145 (40.8%) to record multiple bases. Let’s have some fun with this longshot bet tonight.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jurickson Profar +900 at DraftKings
Dodgers-Rockies Home Run Pick
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver
OddsShopper’s Target: Hunter Goodman at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in the late Dodgers-Rockies matchup. It wants action on RHH Hunter Goodman, who has hit one actual and 1.2 expected home runs across 69 at-bats since getting called up. That number isn’t impressive, but Goodman will benefit from his hitter-friendly home park and 8.1 mph winds blowing out through left field. The model wants action on him at odds of +560 (15.2%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Goodman draws a matchup with RHP Emmet Sheehan, who has been a bit of a fade this year. Sheehan has coughed up nine actual and 7.9 expected home runs across 54.1 innings pitched. Sheehan has fared betting against RHHs like Goodman than LHHs, but he has still coughed up three home runs and a slash line of .222/.275/.384 to them — not terrible, but not great. When counting Goodman’s minor-league stats, he has 24 home runs against RHPs with a slash line of .229/.306/.492 this year.
The model doesn’t care about stats, splits or even the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +400 (20%). Our model thinks a fair price is +516 (16.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Hunter Goodman +560 at FanDuel
OddsShopper MLB Tools & Tips
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