We have another loaded day of MLB action on tap tonight. I’m honing in on a pitcher who has struggled with the long ball all season, especially on the road. Without further ado, let’s dive right into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Fade Cristian Javier Today
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Gunnar Henderson at DraftKings
The Houston Astros are in Baltimore today, and they’ll trot out RHP Cristian Javier. Javier has struggled with the long ball all season and has allowed a team-high 17 actual and 21.2 expected home runs. Javier has coughed up 13 home runs on the road alone as well. He primarily struggles against opposite-handed batters, as LHBs are hitting .278 against him with 28 extra-base hits and 10 home runs. Over his last six starts, Javier has allowed eight home runs, thrice giving up multiple home runs in a single start.
We’ll take advantage of Javier’s struggles by targeting one of Baltimore’s LHBs, Gunnar Henderson. The 22-year-old infielder has excelled against RHPs like Javier and is hitting .258 against them. He has 37 extra-base hits and 17 home runs against RHPs as well. Henderson ranks third on the Orioles in expected weighted on-base average at .343 but slots in second in both actual (19) and expected (16.2) home runs. He enters this game hitting .258 in August with eight hits, four extra-base hits and two home runs.
Henderson will also benefit from playing at home and in hitter-friendly weather. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks eighth in park factors for home runs to LHBs this season. Henderson is hitting .257 in his home park with 26 extra-base hits and eight home runs. With winds expected to blow out through right field, Henderson and the rest of Baltimore’s LHBs will get a nice boost. Let’s lock in Henderson to hit a home run at odds of +400 (20%) via DraftKings Sportsbook and to record over 1.5 total bases at +100 (50%).
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Gunnar Henderson +400 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Max Muncy at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of the best sluggers in L.A. The model believes that Max Muncy is currently undervalued at odds of only +370 (21.3%). Muncy has accounted for a whopping 27 actual and 25.6 expected home runs this season, which ranks second and third on the roster, respectively. Note that six other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Muncy and the Dodgers will line up against RHP Merrill Kelly. Kelly hasn’t been bad this year, but he has allowed 13 actual and 11.1 expected home runs across 112 innings pitched this season. Kelly’s solid 3.21 ERA looks much better than his 4.35 xERA, however, so he will likely have to deal with regression at some point. Chase Field ranks 10th in overall park factors but 24th in park factors for home runs, so getting exposure to Muncy on both the home run and total bases market may prove sharp.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +285 (25.9%). Our model thinks a fair price is +352 (22.1%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +370 (21.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Muncy +370 at FanDuel
