The OddsShopper model picks are on a roll — we hit a +800 ticket on Joey Meneses on Monday and a +350 ticket on Cal Raleigh on Tuesday. Today, I want action on a Dodger (again), and, since OddsShopper’s model doesn’t want any action, I’m also recommending a bet on a Yankee. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Giants-Dodgers and Blue Jays-Yankees. We’re trusting Freddie Freeman at home this evening.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, Sept. 21
Giants-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at FanDuel
Yes, we targeted LHH Freddie Freeman against RHP Reese Olson yesterday and he produced zero hits for us. And yes, I am ready to get hurt again. But Freeman’s matchup today, which comes against LHP Kyle Harrison, is another great spot to target the 34-year-old veteran. Freeman may not have as much pop in years past, but he’ll again benefit from 8 mph winds blowing out through right-center field and a home park that ranks sixth in park factors for home runs to LHHs. Let’s trust one of the MLB’s best bats to get it done for us tonight.
Freeman excels against LHPs, and Harrison has struggled against LHHs since arriving in the majors a few weeks ago. Freeman has mashed 12 home runs while slashing .344/.408/.634 against LHPs, good for a dinger in 6% of his at-bats against them. That number isn’t huge, but assuming he gets four plate appearances against Harrison, that’s roughly a 24% chance — better than the +420 (19.2%) at FanDuel. Meanwhile, Harrison has coughed up three dingers to lefties in just 28 plate appearances against them. LHHs are slashing .500/.571/.958 against him.
Freeman’s season may not have produced a ton of home runs, but he is also a sharp bet to record multiple bases tonight. Harrison leans on a four-seam fastball that he throws more than 60% of the time, and Freeman owns a .341 xBA and a .640 xSLG against that pitch. His overall xBA (.321) and xSLG (.560) are in the 99th and 97th percentiles, respectively. His hard-hit rate (42.8%) is only in the 60th, but it helps that Harrison’s hard-hit rate allowed (43.5%) and average exit velocity allowed (90.5 mph) are well below the league average. You can buy him to get multiple bags at +100 (50%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +420 at FanDuel
Blue Jays-Yankees Home Run Pick
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
OddsShopper’s Target: Aaron Judge at FanDuel
Unfortunately, no home run picks are popping up for today’s small slate in OddsShopper’s model, so you’re getting another pick from me today. I’m no slouch, but I’m also not on a two-day winning streak. You can subscribe to our tools to see if a home run pick pops up sometime later in the day. No home run picks are popping up with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model today, but 24 were yesterday, including some winners like Cal Raleigh. Want to take it for a spin? You can get 70% off your first month!
Yeah, the odds for Aaron Judge to go yard aren’t great tonight, as he is priced all the way up at +255 (28.2%) via FanDuel. However, you’ll find that number down to +170 (37%) at Caesars and +246 (28.9%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Judge has gone yard three times across 28 plate appearances against tonight’s starter, RHP Jose Berrios, which is good for 10.7%. Assuming he gets four plate appearances against Berrios, that’d be good for a 42.9% hit rate. Now, it’s important to tap the breaks and note Judge has 24 home runs in 350 plate appearances against RHPs this year, but that still converts to a 27.4% hit rate over a sample of four plate appearances.
Judge is averaging 4.3 plate appearances per game, so his odds of going yard tonight (28.2%) are slightly worse than his average odds of going yard against RHPs with that much volume (29.2%). Today’s odds for Judge are narrowly worse than what they should be both in general and against Berrios. It’s also worth noting that Judge’s .676 xSLG is in the 100th percentile along with his 97.1 mph average exit velocity and 62.4% hard-hit rate. Judge is slashing .417/.483/.875 against Berrios, so even if he doesn’t get a home run, he’ll likely tally at least two bags.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Aaron Judge +255 at FanDuel
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