It finally happened — we had our first home run column without a winner on Thursday. Fortunately, we cashed a +520 ticket on Triston Casas and a +600 ticket on Ryan Noda earlier in the week, bringing us to 2-3-1, which means we’re still in the black. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re targeting a pair of sluggers playing on the late slate. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Today’s Late Slate Has Value
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | 10:15 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Corbin Carroll at FanDuel
Tonight’s matchup between Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and San Francisco’s RHP Logan Webb (6-6) features two guys who are likely to regress. Carroll has been hitting unsustainably well this year — he has 16 actual home runs to his 13 expected home runs. Likewise, his weighted on-base average of .405 clocks in well above his expected weighted on-base of .351. But we’re taking him to hit a home run tonight anyway, largely because some of the same issues also affect Webb.
Webb has given up plenty of well-hit balls this season. Although he owns a 3.11 ERA, that number slots in well below his 3.72 xERA. Likewise, he has surrendered 12 home runs but 13.4 expected home runs. Five of those home runs were hit by left-handed batters. Although he has currently given up more home runs to righties than lefties, that wasn’t true in last year.
Let’s back Carroll to hit a home run at odds of +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook — and to go over 1.5 bases — tonight. You can find the best odds for his total bases prop at BetMGM or DraftKings. Carroll slots in at only +750 (11.8%) to hit a home run at those books and +400 (20%) at Caesars. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Corbin Carroll +800 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Brenton Doyle at FanDuel
With my pick in the books, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s: the model wants exposure to a batter playing at Coors Field tonight: Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Doyle draws LHP Patrick Sandoval (4-6) tonight. Sandoval has fared reasonably well this year and owns a 4.08 ERA, but his 4.36 xERA suggests that number is a bit lower than it should be. Sandoval hasn’t pitched at Coors Field before but could get knocked around by right-handed outfielder Brenton Doyle. Doyle has five home runs in 143 at-bats this year. Three of those home runs came at Coors Field.
On-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this prop at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +672 (12.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this at +750 (11.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Brenton Doyle +750 at FanDuel
