No broom last night, but it was still a profitable 2-1 evening on the diamond. Tuesday’s action presents some soft pitching matchups to target for extra value. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Tuesday, Aug. 23.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 8/23
Twins at Astros Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
So much of betting this prop — like anything done here — is getting ahead of any shift or movement. Unlike game spreads or totals, even first-five plays, these markets move much faster and earlier in the day. This is an example, as it’s currently plus money for a YRFI play between the Astros and Twins. Justin Verlander is on the hill for Houston, so that should create major frustration for the Twins bats. Verlander hasn’t given up a first inning run at home over his last six starts and is the reason this opened at plus money.
If anyone can get to Verlander on the road and in the first inning, it’s the Twins. Minnesota averages a league-best 0.70 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road. Only seven teams in baseball average more RPFI at home than the Astros — sitting at a 0.68 average. They will take on Aaron Sanchez, who has a 1.76 WHIP and 14% strikeout rate.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Twins at Astros YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
Brewers at Dodgers Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The Los Angeles game is a play for a second straight night after hitting the NRFI yesterday. Targeting any NRFI begins with strong pitching and low WHIPs, and this game features the best of both worlds. Last night there was slight risk on the Brewers side, but Milwaukee sends Corbin Burnes — even better than Eric Lauer — with a 0.93 WHIP 32% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers arm is no slouch either, as Tony Gonsolin has been flat out dominant on the mound, with a 0.86 WHIP. Neither team scored last night in the first, as Milwaukee only gives up 0.47 RPFI to opponents on the road, and the Dodgers are fourth best, giving up just 0.32 RPFI at home.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Brewers at Dodgers NRFI (-150 BetMGM)
Rangers at Rockies Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
This number will be on the move .so getting in on early value is key. This is already beating the global market at +145 for a NRFI and might drop 5 to 10 points. Any game at Coors Field will be shaded towards a YRFI for obvious location reasons. Adding in a couple of weaker arms only makes it a stronger play from the analysis standpoint. In this case, the better line trumps the analysis in that long-term profits generally come from the former not the latter. Neither Dane Dunning nor German Marquez come in with a WHIP lower than 1.30, and both carry higher ERAs — Dunning at 4.06 and Marquez at 5.05.
Dunning has won his two starts off the injured list, with an ERA over a full run below his season average. Marquez has also pitched well as of late but is lacking run support to show for it — such is life when the Rockies offense can be so hot and cold.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Rangers at Rockies NRFI (+145 BetMGM)
