After falling one prop short on our Five-Prop Party parlay yesterday, we look to the Dog Days parlay for this Tuesday MLB slate. Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are incredible. Below are our best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upset at high odds. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/13
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Miami Marlins are nearly mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but there are some strong trends working in their favor as they open up a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. When playing at home the Marlins have beat the Phillies nine-straight games following a loss. They have also led after the third inning in three of their last four games. Despite being 25 games under .500, they are a scrappy team. It also helps the Marlins are pitching their ace Sandy Alcantara, who is having his best season in the majors leading the team in wins, ERA and strikeouts. However, the play isn’t the Marlins, it is instead the under 7.0 runs. The Phillies are a different team on the road. They have scored 300 runs on the road, which ranks below average compared to at home, where they have scored 361 runs, which ranks as fourth-best in the league. Alcantara will do his thing and the Marlins’ offense, which has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the league this season, will likely struggle against the Phillies’ young left-hander Bailey Falter. This feel like a great under bet coming in at even-money.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total Runs UNDER 7.0 (+100)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Sticking with the under total runs theme with the Seattle Mariners hosting the San Diego Padres. This 7.0 total just so happens to be the same as the Marlins and Phillies and also comes in at even money. Despite being over 20 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres still have a great chance of making the postseason. They will send their ace Yu Darvish on the mound tonight as he leads the team in wins and strikeouts. The Mariners will follow suit with Logan Gilbert, who leads the team with a career-best 3.23 ERA. Both offenses rank near and below average in runs scored this season so this game should be quite the pitcher’s duel. Darvish and Gilbert are a combined 5-0 in their last five starts while allowing six earned runs through 32 innings pitched. All of those runs have come from Darvish, as Gilbert hasn’t allowed a run in 12-straight innings. Both teams are implied for 3.6 runs tonight, but we are getting really strong value with taking the under in this pitcher’s duel.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total Runs UNDER 7.0 (+100)
Jakob Junis O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Similar to Mike Minor yesterday, Jakob Junis’ strikeout prop is the lone player prop in this Dog Days parlay. Minor’s prop hit, so hopefully, Junis can match him getting five or more strikeouts in this matchup against the Atlanta Braves. Stokastic projects Junis for 4.7 strikeouts tonight as the Braves rank third in strikeout rate this season as a team. In his first year with the Giants, Junis has posted a career-best 3.98 ERA and 1.17 HR/9. Keeping the ball in the yard will be vitally important against the Braves, who have hit the second-most home runs in the league with 214. Junis is averaging 4.8 strikeouts per game in his last five starts and is much better at home than on the road. Pitching at home, Junis has a 22.4% strikeout rate compared to a 19.2% rate on the road. Despite being a home underdog, this is a great strikeout matchup for a pitcher who is putting up career numbers.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jakob Junis OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
To make the postseason, the Chicago White Sox are going to need to catch the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. They are just three games back as they open up a two-game home series against the Colorado Rockies. The White Sox are -200 favorites, but we’ll take this an extra step and bet them at juiced odds to win by two or more runs. Even though the White Sox offense is very strong, this is more of a bet against the Rockies offense playing away from home. The Rockies on the road this season have the lowest ISO, the least amount of runs scored and the second-lowest wOBA. White Sox starter Michael Kopech‘s last victory came against the Rockies at Coors Field, where he pitched 5.1 shutout innings collecting four strikeouts. If Kopech can pitch that well at Coors Field, imagine what he can do tonight at home. One would think pitching away from Coors Field would help Rockies starter Chad Kuhl, but that has not been the case. He has allowed a 6.00 ERA on the road this season and a 1.86 HR/9. The White Sox should be able to get to Kuhl early, while Kopech shuts the Rockies down when he’s on the mound.
Best MLB Pick Today: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+105)
