Welcome to the second edition of a new NFL picks article from OddsShopper — the NFL Week 2 Confidence Pool Picks.
Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games each week. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to one point — the higher the number the more confident the play.
Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any * denotes an upset.
Week 2 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Cincinnati Bengals (-305) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Poor Dak Prescott. It’s hard to think what anyone saw as quarterback play after his injury will pass for a winner come Sunday. The Bengals were a strong fade if they faced a healthy Prescott but should be in a prime bounce-back spot after losing to Pittsburgh. Dallas will have a week to prepare without their star QB, but it’s Mike McCarthy so enjoy this easy 16.
- Baltimore Ravens (-175) vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami comes off a huge division win against the Patriots where newcomer Tyreek Hill made an immediate impact. Still, their offense struggled against a better defense with only 20 points to show. It’s hard to think the Dolphins do anything more significant against the Ravens’ defense, especially with Lamar Jackson being a significant improvement from Mac Jones.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-245) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were hammered as they opened against a Chiefs team out to prove a point. They face a similar situation this week against a hungry Raiders team. Davante Adams fit right in with Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense is set to explode. The Cardinals are going to take a significant step back this year and we want to get ahead of it here.
- San Francisco 49ers (-360) vs. Seattle Seahawks
What a win for the Seahawks! Too bad they have to travel and play another tough defense, this time without the extra incentives. Seattle game planned their way to victory against a familiar quarterback, but this coaching matchup will prove too much for Pete Carroll. Kyle Shanahan has an extra day to prepare for Seattle’s defense, while his squad faces Geno Smith.
- Los Angeles Rams (-490) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons played tough only to see a last-second victory snatched from their hands. The Rams should win this game but there’s leverage gained to the field if Atlanta proves to be as difficult on offense. LA played a huge game at home and lost to one of the best teams in football, but the Falcons will still be seen as one of the bottom feeders by the Rams. They have more talent than that and Marcus Mariota can cause some problems.
- Denver Broncos (-435) vs. Houston Texans
Denver comes off an emotional gut punch, especially their quarterback. While Russell Wilson looked fine from a health standpoint, the game plan left much to be desired. The Broncos are an improved team but make mistakes and are beatable. Houston continues to showcase improvements from Davis Mills and their defense can get to Wilson.
- Green Bay Packers (-425) vs. Chicago Bears
The leverage play here is dropping the heavily favorited Packers down to a 10-point play, like what we did with Denver and the Colts last week. Chicago has a quarterback problem, but Green Bay has a receiver issue. They had no answer for Justin Jefferson while watching their own guys frustrate Aaron Rodgers. This could be the true end for Rodgers in Green Bay, and a team with Chicago’s defense could get a score or two and change this game.
- Buffalo Bills (-390) vs. Tennessee Titans
Buffalo is a machine. They destroyed the Rams on the ground while showcasing their top weapons in the air. Josh Allen can move the chains by any means necessary, while backed by one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. The Titans lost to the Giants, and everyone is panicking. They still have talent around Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry in the backfield. If their defense holds then Tennessee can win this one.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-125) vs. Minnesota Vikings
A shorter home favorite for an Eagles team that looked amazing on offense. Their defense in Detroit was nothing close to amazing and leaves a lot of questions. The Eagles’ offense might be good enough to keep up or outscore anyone in the league, and the Vikings still have the cloud that hangs over Kirk Cousins in primetime games.
- Cleveland Browns (-240) vs. New York Jets
Going up against a much worse offense than Baltimore gives the Jets a chance. It’s at least a chance. The game plan will not require Joe Flacco to launch the ball 50+ times and the Browns are dealing with their own issues at the position. Both defenses will be the stars in this game, keeping it low scoring and close, which gives the Jets their only chance.
- Detroit Lions (-135) vs. Washington Commanders*
Detroit was flattened by the Eagles’ offense but took advantage of their bozo defensive coordinator’s lack of game plan. The Eagles’ defense was much more talented than their approach on the field, which changes going up against a competent defensive-minded coach in Ron Rivera. Carson Wentz might fall apart but it’s not going to be in Detroit.
- New England Patriots (-125) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The health of Mac Jones is the key here along with Bill Belichick’s game plan against Mitch Trubisky. There will be a lot of public love for Pittsburgh following that emotionally draining victory filled with chaos. Hard to take much away from that except they beat a Bengals team in a horrible position for Week 1. The Patriots’ defense will smother Trubisky.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-165) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints held on, despite some late heroics, and are catapulted into this Week 2 matchup brimming with confidence. It felt like the Bucs had little contest against the Cowboys, but Big D’s defense held up for the most part. It’s still a division game with a Saints defense just as capable as Dallas was against Tom Brady.
- New York Giants (-135) vs. Carolina Panthers*
After losing the “Baker Bowl”, the Panthers regroup against a Giants team full of false hope. New York stunned the world – shoutout to Loughy on the OddsShopper live betting show (Every Friday at 1 p.m. ET) for calling this outright – by beating the Titans. This isn’t a change of direction for New York as the Panthers just lost a game full of extenuating circumstances.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-180) vs Los Angeles Chargers*
The Chiefs clearly weren’t looking ahead to this game while beating up on the Cardinals, but it’s their first true test of the season. The Chargers have an electric offense that can switch up pacing and gash the Chiefs on the ground. Most teams move away from the ground game earlier than they should against KC, so keeping balance is LA’s key to victory. Justin Herbert still has to make throws and keep up with Patrick Mahomes.
- Indianapolis Colts (-190) at Jacksonville Jaguars*
Doug Pederson and his Jags fell apart at the end of their loss to Washington but most – if not all – of that is correctable through play calling. It’s an enigma why Pederson and Trevor Lawrence were executing plays mostly seen by teams down by double-digits, so expect a more conservative and timelier plan this week. Indy is in trouble as they are quickly figuring out what they invested in with Matt Ryan.
