Things look awfully familiar this round for the Boston Celtics. They come out on top in Game 1, drop a stinker at home in Game 2, then pound both Miami and now Cleveland in Game 3. Still on the road, Boston hopes to put closeout pressure on the Cavaliers with another win. The Mavericks are up 2-1 as they host the Thunder. Luka Doncic is as healthy as it gets right now, still good enough to complement Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington. Let’s build a winner with some Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions!
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P.J. Washington H/L Than 15.5 Points
What goes up … Washington has been on a tear over the past two games, especially as Doncic is finding his way through injury. The Mavericks are getting quality points from Washington as they expose some holes in the Thunder’s defense, primarily leaving him open in the corner. Dallas has another favorable matchup with both Irving and Doncic as they figure out a slower pacing in this game. The dedication to more of a halfcourt approach allows Doncic to catch up to the game, giving him more scoring chances at the expense of Washington.
Two things are going to work against Washington tonight, outside of variance with a role player in the postseason. The first is having Doncic become more of a scorer in a designed lower-paced, halfcourt game. The second is not seeing as many open looks by the Thunder, basically not leaving Washington wide open from deep.
Using the NBA pick’em tool, we find a 2.3% edge against the market. The implied odds at Underdog sit at -122, which beat the -129 true odds for less than 15.5 points.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: P.J. Washington LESS Than 15.5 Points
Al Horford H/L Than 7.5 Rebounds
The Celtics may have needed a wakeup call after dropping Game 2 at home, as they outlasted the Cavaliers in their own building. Al Horford played 39 minutes in a 13-point blowout, but he wasn’t alone. Most starters played deep into that game, almost as a tune-up for a deeper run. While Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can benefit from extended minutes while hammering teams, Horford may see less time tonight.
Despite a significant increase in minutes, Horford remained below the above rebound total. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the aged vet Horford hasn’t done much more with the added playing time. We like his minutes to take a hit and to hover at the five- to six-rebound total.
There’s always a chance Boston incinerates Cleveland, blowing them out of their own building. We just saw a 13-point convincing win; still motivated, Boston could duplicate that same result — or worse. There’s just no justification for playing Horford deep into another blowout either.
OddsShopper’s NBA pick’em tool gives us a 4.1% EV edge with our -122 implied odds at Underdog. By going less than 7.5 Horford rebounds, we stay well ahead of the -134 true odds.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Al Horford LESS Than 7.5 Rebounds
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