Few companies feature as many diverse sports-related offers as Underdog Fantasy — they now operate best ball fantasy leagues, pick’em contests (both versus the house and peer-to-peer) and even a sportsbook in North Carolina. This article will focus on one of those offerings, Underdog Fantasy Pick’em, and how you can turn your passion for sports into cash through those contests. Let’s discuss how to play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em and dive into the best strategy for how to find value at the rapidly growing site by using Portfolio EV’s Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Optimizer.
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How to Play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em: Strategy for Finding Value
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How to Play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em: Registration & Deposits
To get started with Underdog Fantasy Pick’em, you’ll need to register for an account, which you can do here, and place your first deposit. Make sure to double-check that Underdog Fantasy is legal in your state! After you’ve done that, you’re good to start playing.
To build a lineup, you must select at least two player projections to target. These will vary by sport — in the NFL, you’ll often get to work with yards and receptions; in the NBA, you’ll usually work with points, assists, rebounds or some combination of the two.
But how do you determine which projections to use, and, more importantly, whether to go higher or lower? Well, if you want to make money over the long term, you’ll need to find lines with positive expected value (+EV).
How to Play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em: Strategy for Finding Value
Now let’s talk about how to identify squares that have +EV. You can employ either a projections-based or market-based approach. Projection-based approaches use players’ stats to estimate how much they’ll produce, then allow you to approximate the probability they record higher or lower than the listed projection.
In contrast, market-based approaches use the listed projections available across the fantasy sports and sports betting markets to arrive at that approximated probability. For example, if every other site has Damian Lillard listed at 24.5 points but Underdog Fantasy Pick’em has it at 22.5, you’re probably best served to go with the over.
This doesn’t just apply to off-market numbers. Let’s say that every site lists the total at 24.5. But Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has the over priced at -200 (75%), but the equivalent “odds” — which we can estimate by breaking down the payout structure of different lineups — at Underdog Fantasy Pick’em are only -125, you’re also best served to go with the over.
But how do you know which sites to use — and how can you stay updated on where the prices are available? That’s what Portfolio EV’s Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Optimizer is designed to do.
How to Use Portfolio EV’s Underdog Optimizer
Our Underdog Optimizer allows you to build entries with +EV quickly. The tool uses the market-based model from our pick’em plays sheet and lists the best available squares in order of most to least +EV. If the site has a free or discounted square on the board, you can almost always find it trading atop the board. Let’s look at an example lineup with +EV:
The spotlighted Underdog entry has +EV because each square has +EV. As you use the tool, you’ll notice that the threshold for +EV varies by the number of squares in your entry. Let’s break them down:
Two Picks: -137 (57.8%)
Three Picks: -122 (55%)
Four Picks: -128 (56.1$)
Five Picks: -122 (55%)
It’s important to pay attention to the +EV threshold for your lineups. In a three-pick lineup, picks with true odds (how our market-based model estimates the probability of a given pick) above -122 are +EV — but in a two- or four-pick lineup, they must be better than either -137 or -128, respectively.
Note that the edge our model finds in this screenshot is slight. Those picks had true odds of -133, -127 and -125, respectively. Although this is enough edge for you to turn a profit over the long term, don’t expect every lineup to win.
You only need to hit one in every six three-pick lineups to break even, and you only need to hit one in every 20 five-pick lineups to break even. Disciplined and intentional use of our tools can help you transform your bankroll — just check out some results!
Does Portfolio EV Make People Money?
Now that you have a basic understanding of how to play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em, you might be wondering if the strategies outlined above are profitable. The answer is an unequivocal “Yes!” If you need some results, consider that our NBA model had an ROI of 8.6% through the All-Star Break on all wagers placed 12 hours before tip-off.
