Underdog Fantasy has something for everyone. They are best known for their industry-leading NFL best ball contests with prizes as high as $2 million to first place. Underdog runs best ball contests in every major sport, including season-long and playoff formats. But now that they’ve made a name for themselves in one area, they’re branching out into year-long and daily fantasy sports as well as pick’em contests. Let’s dive into how to play Underdog Fantasy pick’em contests and the best strategies — if you want some Underdog picks today, check out our discounted Underdog tool!
Pick’em contests are quickly becoming popular among sports bettors who don’t have access to legalized gambling or simply enjoy the challenge of this format. Just like pick’em platforms such as PrizePicks and No House Advantage, Underdog has nuances that you’ll need to understand before getting in on the action. The differences include the option to make correlated picks and a slightly different hold percentage.
Check out OddsShopper’s tools for winning UnderDog Fantasy Pick’em plays that are updated every day. Subscribe to our new Pick’em Package to gain full access. If you want to learn more about Underdog Fantasy Pick’em, check out our guide, see if it’s legal in your state — or check out our breakdown of their Free Squares promotion. Haven’t signed up yet? That’s great — new users can get their first deposit matched up to $100!
How to Play Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems: Strategy for Finding Value
So, how does Underdog Fantasy work? The site has five tiers to their pick’em contests, all of which have different potential ROIs if you’re playing correctly. The best ROI spot is the three-pick pick’em. That may seem counterintuitive since it requires you to get more selections right to win yet pays less than one with four or more picks. However, the payout structure and the winning percentage you’ll need for your three-pick plays make it the safest way to go on Underdog.
The key to the equation is that the three-pick multiplier has a 6x payout relative to the 5x payouts on sites like PrizePicks and No House Advantage. That means you’ll need your picks to have an average of just over 55% to break even. Anything north of 55% for the three picks, and you’re getting positive expected value. You’ll win at a slightly lower clip, 16.67% to 20%, but compare that to the roughly 58% win probability you’ll need on other sites’ three-pick multipliers, and this one becomes a no-brainer.
Of course, the easiest way to take advantage of scenarios like this on Underdog, or any site is to use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to find the highest expected value spots to attack. The Underdog Fantasy parlay tool can load these up for you and calculate you’re expected return, win probability and payout.
Although Underdog’s three-pick multiplier makes a lot of sense compared to their other offerings and the payouts available on other platforms, you should familiarize yourself with their entire pick’em contest structure so you can hit any opportunity that arises.
| Play Type | # of Picks | Payout | Probability of Cashing | Average Implied Odds To Break Even for Each Pick | American Odds Needed to Break Even for Each Pick | American Odds Needed to Break Even for Each Pick (Standard Vig of 4.76% Included) |
| Multiplier | 2 | 3x | 33.33% | 57.74% | -137 | -154 |
| 3 | 6x | 16.67% | 55.03% | -123 | -137 | |
| 4 | 10x | 10.00% | 56.23% | -129 | -144 | |
| 5 | 20x | 5.00% | 54.93% | -122 | -136 |
It stands to reason that your most likely path to winning is picking two and playing it safe. The problem is that the 3x payout on a two-pick multiplier makes it difficult to find positive ROI spots. Your bets need to hit around 58% of the time just to break even. If you can find two bets with such good win percentages then you should definitely mix in these two-pick options. They aren’t as exciting as hitting a huge pick’em card but they’ll give you positive expectation at the lowest-risk play available.
The aforementioned three-pick entry offers the most bang for your buck. The 6x payout is higher than the industry standard for three-pick multipliers. Those typically payout 5x, so you’ll have an improved breakeven percentage on Underdog by finding three bets that when combined average a 55.03% win rate.
The four-pick multiplier requires the picks to have a combined 56.23% win rate. The five-pick option will need you to find a 55% win probability in order to break even. It’s pretty rare to find that many high-chance situations to string together. Keep in mind that OddsShopper’s Underdog tool will help you do so. Just be mindful of the ROIs and win chances it spits out — although you’ll get paid off big when you win, those huge hits don’t come around too frequently.
Boosting Your Edge: Winning Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Strategy Tips
Despite all the similarities between Underdog Fantasy and other pick’em platforms, there’s one huge difference that you should think through when building your card. Unlike many sites, Underdog allows you to use correlated plays on the same card. For example, if you like Jacob deGrom’s strikeout prop today against the Oakland Athletics, you could pair that with Ramon Laureano’s under 1.5 total bases. When deGrom and the Texas Rangers are cruising, it often means bad things for Oakland’s hitters. Most importantly, it takes two bets that may have a 56% win chance and increases them since the outcomes work together to boost their chances.
Be careful with this sort of betting because correlation can also work against you and decrease the win probability of the bets on your board. You should also be mindful not to overrate correlation. It’s important, but it can only boost the win rate of your bets so much. Nevertheless, it can sometimes be a way to take a negative or breakeven pick’em card and make it into one with some positive expected value.
On a final note — one great strategy for finding winning pick’em plays at Underdog Fantasy is simply checking out OddsShopper’s Underdog tool to let the market do the work for you.
