Everybody loves a loser. Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are very nice. For this nine-game main slate, below are the best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upset at high odds. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/17
Corey Kluber O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first season with the Rays, Corey Kluber has 22 starts under his belt, which is the most he has had since the 2018 season. He still has a very respectable 21.1% strikeout rate and a 1.19 WHIP. A revenge matchup against the Yankees awaits Kluber tonight. The All-Star Break has not been kind to the Yankees, as they are 8-17 in the second half of the season and have lost 11 of their last 13 games. In August, the Yankees are tied for the seventh-highest strikeout rate and have scored the fifth-fewest runs. What was once an intimidating matchup has turned into a great spot.
Kluber was absolutely shelled in his last start, allowing seven earned runs, but he still recorded four strikeouts. The previous two starts, Kluber turned in strikeout performances of 5 and 10. Stokastic projects 4.7 strikeouts for Kluber in this matchup and an xWin rate of 50% on his over strikeout prop.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Corey Kluber OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Zach Davies O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Looking at game logs may deter one away from Zach Davies’ strikeout prop, but the Rockies and Guardians rarely get caught whiffing. Davies is also coming off of an injury, so this is only his fourth straight start, and his pitch count has ramped up in every outing. He draws a road matchup against the Giants, who rank just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate. Davies has yet to face the Giants this season, but if he can get back to his strikeout form that he had in May and June, getting this over should be a breeze. Stokastic projects Davies for 3.8 strikeouts, which may not be a lot, but it is still providing confidence in the over tonight.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Zach Davies OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Eric Lauer O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Brewers starter Eric Lauer has put together back-to-back seasons with above a 23% strikeout rate. Lauer follows right behind stud pitcher Corbin Burnes in a plethora of categories on the Brewers this season. In his 21 starts this season, Lauer is averaging 5.5 strikeouts per game. His 23.5% strikeout rate and the fact that Lauer is a southpaw will help as he takes on the Dodgers, who are currently the best team in baseball. The Dodgers score a ton of runs, but they also strike out a good share and their strikeout rate increases to 22.4% against left-handed pitchers this season. This will be Lauer’s first start against the heavy-hitting Dodgers, but it is one where he can obviously take advantage with his strikeout upside. Stokastic projects Lauer to get exactly 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup, which makes this over prop very valuable.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Eric Lauer OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Cole Ragans O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This is the only under strikeout prop in the Dog Days Parlay, but it has the biggest xWin rate of any prop (58%) because Stokastic projects Cole Ragans to only record 4.2 strikeouts tonight. This will be Ragans third career start in the major leagues, and he has a wildly low 9.1% strikeout rate. In his first two starts, Ragans averaged two strikeouts per game. He didn’t allow a run in his first start but was wrecked in his most recent, allowing five earned runs in only 4.1 innings. The Athletics don’t put a lot of fear into opposing pitchers, but it’s hard to see Ragans getting even close to five strikeouts tonight given his first two starts.
For a team that has scored the second-fewest runs this season, the Athletics still have a 4.1 implied run total in this spot. The matchup may be good, but Ragans has shown nothing from a strikeout standpoint, making this under very attainable.
Best MLB Parlay Pick Today: Cole Ragans UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
