PrizePicks has another full slate of MLB action from which to make picks, and we will once again use OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder to find a strong 10x entry. As is most often the case, getting high-ROI entries requires at least five picks, so it is going to be very important to use OddsShopper to get a closer look at the best player projections for MLB PrizePicks when building a winning entry. Let’s get to it, starting with some high strikeout projections.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 4
Pablo Lopez Fewer Than 6.5 Strikeouts
Despite Lopez’s impressive 31% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate, OddsShopper gives him a 57% of getting fewer than 6.5 strikeouts. This is because the White Sox lineup, while it does have some strikeout-prone batters like Eloy Jimenez and Jake Burger, has many players who do not strike out often (even if some of those have limited sample sizes). Additionally, the White Sox have Lucas Giolito on the mound, who is good enough to prevent Minnesota from getting out in front early. Ultimately, Lopez’s chances of reaching this projection may be challenging given the opponent.
Grayson Rodriguez Fewer Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Rodriguez also has an impressive strikeout rate (32.4%), but he only has a 56% chance of going for more than 5.5 strikeouts, according to OddsShopper, as the market does not believe the Kansas City Royals lineup has enough strikeouts in them for Rodriguez to reach that number. Furthermore, Rodriguez has a subpar 10.5% walk rate, which could potentially lead to him getting into trouble and exiting early. That walk rate could also leave him vulnerable to hits. Therefore, playing Rodriguez to have fewer than 5.5 strikeouts is a good option.
J.J. Bleday More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Bleday doesn’t walk much, but he has shown some potential in limited opportunities. His opponent, George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners, does not strike out many batters, which could result in more hittable pitches for Bleday. Kirby has a strikeout rate of only 20%, which may give Bleday more opportunities to make contact and potentially get some hits. Overall, this suggests that Bleday is a good play to get at least one hit.
Rodolfo Castro More Than 0.5 Total Bases
The previous game against Tampa Bay did not work out well for Castro, but with a more favorable pitching matchup (Zac Eflin as opposed to Shane McClanahan), Castro has a good chance of hitting for power, as he has shown some ability to do so. Additionally, his strikeout rate is manageable, and the implied odds of this entry beating the rest of the market is at 54%, making it a +EV play on PrizePicks. While it is important to consider the starting pitching for the Pirates to ensure they are not playing from a significant deficit, this matchup against Eflin suggests that Castro has a good chance of getting at least one hit in the game.
Triston Casas More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Casas has a good eye for navigating the plate and drawing walks — which is normally something to avoid when playing total bases. However, although Casas is facing a tough matchup with Kevin Gausman on the hill, Gausman is going to throw strikes. With a walk rate of 16.8%, Casas is the best guy on the team at drawing walks, so Gausman will need to give him hittable pitches to avoid walking him a bunch. Maybe Gausman will avoid throwing to Casas, but that is not a likely outcome. Based on this, it is reasonable to expect Casas to get more than 0.5 total bases in this matchup.
All together, this 10x play has a 5% expected win rate.
