To make the most of tonight’s slate of MLB games on PrizePicks, we will be utilizing OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder to identify a top-tier entry. As always, getting a +EV play with MLB PrizePicks usually requires five-plus picks, so check out the video below to find some bonus plays to maximize the expected ROI. Now, with the help OddsShopper, let’s pinpoint the best MLB PrizePicks for Thursday.
Editor Note: This post was originally published at 9:34 AM on Thursday.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 11
Jake Bauers More Than 0.5 Total Bases
This type of play is our go-to profitable pick, and despite Bauers’ recent lack of hitting form, he has made some adjustments since his first game on May 29. The pitching matchup against Drew Rasmussen may not be easy, but volume is the key here, and with three at-bats at the bottom of the lineup, there is a good shot that he will get on base and exceed 0.5 total bases. Bauers does not have much of a sample this season, so this could be an opportunity for Bauers to shine and contribute for the Yankees.
Daniel Vogelbach More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Vogelbach has been able to keep his strikeouts down and is slapping hits, though he only has three extra-base hits in the month of May. He should get four plate appearances in the game, and despite Derrick Law’s propensity to walking people, he is also likely going to give Vogelbach pitches to hit given this is his first start in years. Vogelbach has hits in six of 10 games this month, and with the exploitable matchup, his form looks good for him to get at least one base.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Fewer Than 1.5 Total Bases
Tatis’ opponent today, Bailey Ober, has a modest walk rate and pitches to contact, which usually helps more plays on total bases. However, to Ober’s credit, he is pitching to contact very well, with just a .217 BABIP allowed. Tatis may get one hit, as he has done in two of the last three games, but he needs two bases, so a single would not be enough to exceed the projection. With the tough matchup, two bases is a bit high of a mark for Tatis today.
