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NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, July 9

The spirit of Nathan must have flowed through us yesterday as we locked in another 2-0 night — hitting the NRFI at -105 AND our OddsShopper Premium model bet. We’re running it back today with the same team and same logic because, hey — if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. For more picks like NRFIs and other best bets, be sure to head to Nathan’s Discord, where he gives all of his picks every day — and get 20% off when you use code NATHAN.

Let’s find ourselves a no run first inning pick with some value.

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NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets | NRFI Bets Today

Is it snoozeville of me to ride the Nationals NRFI again? Maybe, but don’t blame me for DraftKings keeping it at palatable -115 odds. As long as Washington puts a competent starter on the mound, I’m in favor of siding with the no run first inning in most of their games, to be honest.

And a competent starter is what the Nats are running today. Fresh off a neat little All-Star snub, Jake Irvin will take the bump against a Mets team that has been upsettingly good. New York is fourth in MLB in runs and slugging over the last 15 days and first in home runs. That is not the most encouraging of NRFI opponents, one might say.

But here is where I bring some good news as we pursue the no run first inning: The Mets are also striking out and walking around league average in that time, so a good pitcher who doesn’t walk batters should be in a good spot to keep the bases clean — especially if he avoids Pete Alonso in the cleanup spot.

Irvin is ninth in all of MLB for pitching WAR and ERA and eighth in WHIP. And though the Mets are raking, they have been NRFI’d in NINE straight, including four games against these Nationals. They are doing a lot of damage in the second inning, though — so they just need those warmup swings and misses in the first.

Irvin is 12-6 keeping the first scoreless this year, and now he also has the chip on his shoulder of being passed over for the All-Star Game. Lock that in.

Oh, and also the Nationals are the worst offense in baseball in the first inning and beyond, and Jose Quintana is a perfectly passable pitcher. If he can keep his elevated walks at bay (8.3% walk rate this year), I am pretty confident the Nats cannot string together enough hits to plate one — they are only averaging a first inning run once every four games, after all.

Best NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Mets NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)

There aren’t many worthwhile player props in this Nationals-Mets game outside of this lock of a NRFI, but we still have a good market-based MLB betting model pick below to give you another +EV play today!

Jarren Duran is a stud, and thus the books and public are giving him a lot of credit with this obscene line — and the OddsShopper model loves the other side. Given that EV age, however, it may not last super long, so be sure to get it in while you can.

The current odds of -132 at SuperBook are the best out there, but if you don’t have access to SuperBook, the more widely available Caesars is just a tick below at -133. Several other books are also giving positive expected value (+EV) on this bet; the -147 true odds mean anything -146 or below is going to give you an edge.

On SuperBook, this prop has a 4.6% EV grade in the OddsShopper model, and the 59% expected win percentage gets us to an OS Rating of 6, which is very strong.

So if you’re looking for another bet to pair with our NRFI play above, this is one +EV bet that you can look to make with confidence, according to our OddsShopper Tools.

Eric Lindquist’s Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, July 9, 2024
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Sam Smith

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