I’m going out of character for my home run picks on this fine Dinger Tuesday. As I mention below and each week, this isn’t the space to find +200 winners as my best MLB bet. But we’re getting a little short when it comes to Joey Gallo against Michael Kopech.
Gallo is in too good of a spot to pass up his odds in a Dinger Tuesday matchup that could see even more home runs than just his.
Haven’t heard of Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
New to FanDuel? Get $150 in bonus bets if you are a first-time depositor and place a $5 wager.
How you attack Dinger Tuesday is up to you. My preference, which may differ from others, is to generally take some chances. I’m finding high totals where home runs will be expected in order to cash in on the bonus bets while hoping to connect on a few longer odds. This probably isn’t the space to find many +250 picks. But we will find a play in the +300 range this week.
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Today’s Best MLB Bets: Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks (May 2)
Joey Gallo, +340 | Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
You won’t find a better matchup on the board. Joey Gallo meets White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech. Kopech is having his worst season to date; it’s only been one month but he needs more than a shovel to dig himself out of this hole. His exit velocity is a career-worst and he’s giving up hard contact 58% of the time. That’s 17% more than last season. He’s allowed four home runs on fastballs and another four on his slider and curveball.
Pair that with Gallo, who is hitting the ball harder than he ever has (97.5 exit velocity, 72% hard hit rate). He has four home runs against fastballs and three against breaking pitches. The downside to Gallo is he generally hits lower in the order. The upside is literally everything else.
That 60-1 number I tweeted about last week? That’s now 33-1 at Caesars.
Joey Gallo 60-1 to lead baseball in homers?
— Tommy Stokke (@StokkeTommy) April 26, 2023
Justin Turner, +630 | Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Has Yusei Kikuchi turned things around? So far, it seems. He’s having early success mostly by not walking the entire lineup each time out. That was his problem last year. This year, he’s allowed 9 runs in 27 innings with 28 strikeouts and just six walks. But he’s still allowed six homers, including five to right-handed hitters. Boston doesn’t have many of them, but Turner is our choice at these odds. With a total of 9.5 and a powerful Blue Jays lineup on the other side, we should collect multiple free bets even if Turner doesn’t cash.
Anthony Rendon, +600 | Los Angeles Angels vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Do you remember where you were when Anthony Rendon hit his first home run of the 2023 season? No, because it hasn’t happened yet. But there’s no better time to hit your first home run than a Tuesday in May at +600.
Rendon gets a matchup with Steven Matz, whose primary pitch is a sinker. Rendon hasn’t hit anything particularly well this year, but his slugging percentage is best against sinkers. Everything else is working against us, but it usually is when you’re talking about a 6-1 bet. Rendon’s teammates can contribute, too, I’m just not ready to bet Mike Trout at +285.
Brian Anderson, +400 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
You have to run through a lot of Baseball Savant pages before finding something good on the Brewers. Maybe that’s because I started with Christian Yelich who only hits it in the air on accident or Jesse Winker who turned into David Eckstein. Then we landed on Anderson, who gets to hit in Coors Field. That’s really the bonus here; we’re attacking a total of 11 knowing we can cash in on bonus bets when unpredictability happens in the fine air of Colorado.
Anderson’s barrel% is a career best and his xSLG is best against sliders, which happens to be Rockies starter Ryan Feltner’s preferred pitch. Anderson is our home run pick, but it’s really a play on the game environment and collecting the free bets as well.
