Game 4 got ugly, fast. The Rangers jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the in the third inning and never looked back. That was until the Diamondbacks reeled off six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to make the score look respectful. It’s do-or-die time for Arizona. How will they respond with two aces on the mound? Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Game 5 of the World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Nov. 1.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, Nov.1
Diamondbacks-Rangers Player Prop Bet
We cashed in last night on Gabriel Moreno over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI late in the game before the Diamondbacks erupted offensively. Can they carry that momentum into Game 5 against postseason stud Nathan Eovaldi? I’m banking on it. In a series where the offense sees an opposing starting pitcher more than once, I give the edge to the offense. Eovaldi’s earned runs prop is set at 2.5 with vig on the under, while his outs recorded prop is set at 15.5 with vig on the under. That doesn’t necessarily mean the sportsbooks think Eovaldi will get hit around. The thinking is his leash will be shorter, like most postseason games are for starters, in what is a “win and hoist the title” game. With that being said, I’m focusing my attention on Ketel Marte, who continues to build on his historic postseason career.
Don’t you love seeing sportsbooks boost plays on the player you’re backing? It gives you that uneasy feeling that they know something that you don’t. Well, DraftKings is boosting Marte over 1.5 total bases to +175. We won’t let that stop us from backing Marte over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, a prop he has cleared in three of four games this series and 11 of 16 games this postseason. That includes two RBIs and a double against Eovaldi in Game 1. That familiarity for a hitter like Marte will come up clutch, especially at home, where he hit over .300 during the regular season. I give the edge to switch-hitting Marte not only against Eovaldi but against that woeful Texas Rangers bullpen.
Best Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series Player Prop Bet: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings)
Diamondbacks-Rangers Home Run Pick
I have yet to have success in this series in picking a player to hit a home run. I fade Corey Seager, and he goes yard every other game. I back him, and he gets walked twice and grounds out another two times. So I’m here again, taking Seager to hit a home run at +360 on FanDuel Sportsbook. If the Rangers win this series, Seager is winning World Series MVP. He’s currently -750 to win the award after hitting another home run last night. I still don’t understand why the Diamondbacks are pitching to him. They did the same thing with Bryce Harper in the NLCS, and he made them pay early in the series. I fondly remember backing Harper to walk and cashing nearly every game of that series.
If the Diamondbacks continue to pitch to Seager, I’ll gladly back him to hit a home run. I’ll additionally be betting on him to walk at +105 on DraftKings. It’s unlikely we will cash both, but this is the most lethal hitter we’ve had this postseason. If this is the last game of the season, I’ll take my chances backing Seager.
Best Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series Home Run Bet: Corey Seager +360 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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