The best two words in sports: Game 7. The Phillies were shell-shocked in Game 6 by Merrill Kelly but will have redemption against Brandon Pfaadt, who shut them out in Game 3. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Diamondbacks-Phillies on Tuesday, Oct. 24.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Tuesday, Oct. 24
Diamondbacks-Phillies Player Prop Bet
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
If you haven’t already, follow me over on Twitter or X — whatever they call it nowadays — at JutPicks. I put out this player prop bet early this morning, which has moved 15 cents. At the current price, it’s still playable. We’re targeting Phillies superstar Bryce Harper to record a walk over at BetMGM at -115.
This is nothing new if you’ve read my work for this series. I’ve backed Harper to walk each game this series, and it has only lost once in six games. Even in Game 5, where it lost, Harper had three three-ball counts, including a 3-0 count. Tonight, Harper will match up against rookie Brandon Pfaadt, making the biggest start of his life in the most hostile environment he may ever see.
Pfaadt was sensational in Game 3 of this series at home. He punched out a career-high nine batters and was pulled at 70 pitches through 5.2 innings. He shut out the Phillies offense, which scored its only run of the game in the seventh inning. Let’s look ahead to tonight, where the familiarity of Pfaadt will pay dividends for a batter like Harper. In the two at-bats against Pfaadt, Harper grounded out twice, including a double-play in the first. He saw a total of just five pitches in those two at-bats — uncommon for Harper, who has been pitched around all series long.
Harper may not see Pfaadt more than once anyway. Once the lineup turns, the Diamondbacks may elect to go to a LHP to face off against Kyle Schwarber and Harper. No matter what pitcher is throwing to Harper, pitching around him seems to be a managerial decision, especially with Alec Bohm hitting behind him. Phillies manager Rob Thompson may elect to switch up the lineup, but it may not matter with how Bohm, Bryson Stott and Nick Castellanos are seeing the ball.
Best Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (+100 at BetMGM)
Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Pick
We’re set to get slight winds blowing out tonight — huge for home run props. The Diamondbacks put on a home run party last night, but we’re turning to the Phillies at home, specifically the $300 million man Trea Turner.
Other than hitless affairs in the last two games, Turner has been sensational this postseason. He’s recorded the third-most hits and has clobbered three home runs. He missed one last night in the first inning despite it hitting 95 mph off the bat and traveling 337 feet. He recorded another flyout later in the game, that was hit 101 mph.
Turner has the potential to see lefties out of the bullpen since he is platooned in between Schwarber and Harper. I’ll take those chances all game long for a hitter like Turner, who hit nine home runs off LHP and .291 at home behind the Phillies faithful.
Best Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Bet: Trea Turner +330 at FanDuel
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