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Twins-Brewers Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tuesday (April 2)

To kick off Tuesday’s slate of MLB action, the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers will do battle in Wisconsin. The forecast calls for some icky weather, so it’s a good thing that American Family Field has a retractable roof. Let’s dig into our pick and prediction for Tuesday’s Twins-Brewers game which will be broadcast via ESPN+. The Twins-Brewers betting odds have this one as nearly a toss-up — so what’s our angle? Keep reading to find out. If you’re hungry for more action, our MLB betting tools or our MLB betting articles. Also, you can always check out my guide to MLB player prop betting as well!

Twins-Brewers Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tuesday

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Twins-Brewers Odds

Odds via FanDuel
MIN: -110 | MIL: -106
MIN -1.5: +150 | MIL +1.5: -182
Over 8.5: -112 | Under 8.5: -108
Game Time: 4 p.m. ET

Twins-Brewers Pick & Betting Prediction

The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their mid-week series early on Tuesday afternoon. The Twins are projected to start RHP Louie Varland while the Brewers are projected to start RHP Jakob Junis, which is a pretty even pitching matchup. Neither option is spectacularly good or spectacularly bad.

The advanced stats from last season bear out the evenness of this pitching matchup. Varland (4.58 xERA) was worse than Junis (3.74 xERA) in terms of batted balls, but when it comes to allowing baserunners, Varland (1.22 WHIP) edged out Junis (1.29 WHIP) by a slim margin.

Once Varland and Junis exit, the pitching battle should remain evenly matched. Minnesota’s bullpen enters the year ranked third, per Fangraphs, while Milwaukee clocks in at sixth. The Brewers ranked second in bullpen ERA last year (3.40), beating out 15th-ranked Minnesota by a decent margin (3.95), but the Twins’ offseason moves helped them make up the difference.

In the batter’s box, these teams remain evenly matched — largely because of Milwaukee’s offseason gains. The Twins ranked 10th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .325, giving them a sizeable advantage over 25th-ranked Milwaukee (.311). However, Minnesota lost Donovan Solano (.351 xwOBA) while Milwaukee added Gary Sanchez (.343 xwOBA) and Rhys Hoskins (.372 xwOBA).

With two evenly matched teams lining up against the other, it would make sense to play the underdog, especially since they’re the home team. Milwaukee went 49-34 at home last year and was a plucky 13-12 as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Minnesota went only 41-42 on the road and 24-20 as a road favorite.

But we’re not picking Milwaukee here — instead, we’re picking the under. American Family Field is a pitcher-friendly park, as it ranks 24th in park factors (97) generally, but with the roof closed (which it will be on Tuesday as the forecast calls for a wintry mix), it ranks seventh of eight stadiums with retractable roofs (96).

With two high-quality bullpens supporting good-but-not-great starters and relatively unremarkable offenses, I’m thankful to get the under 8.5 for -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Both teams opened the year 2-1 to the under. Since 2022, Milwaukee’s home games are 82-76-6 (51.9%) to the under.

Twins-Brewers Pick & Prediction: Under 8.5 -105 at DraftKings

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