With one month left in the MLB regular season and one sleep left until the NFL regular season begins, now would be the perfect time to hit a Dog Days parlay! Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are great. Below are our best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upsets at high odds. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/7
Jeffrey Springs O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his fifth year in the major leagues and his first full season as a starter, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs has put together a remarkable season with a career-best 2.62 ERA and 1.01 HR/9 allowed. The Rays are rolling right now, winning 18 of their last 23 games. Springs is 4-1 in his last six starts and has averaged 6.7 strikeouts per game while capturing six or more strikeouts in all but one of those six starts. The lone loss for Springs during that time was against the Boston Red Sox, who he will get redemption against tonight. Despite the loss and allowing five earned runs through six innings, Springs still recorded eight strikeouts. For the season, he has a 27% strikeout rate and a very impressive 1.12 WHIP. Stokastic projects Springs for 6.1 strikeouts in this matchup with an xWin rate of 56%. There isn’t much juice on this over, but it is plenty to get us started for this Dog Days parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jeffrey Springs OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Tommy Henry O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Arizona Diamondbacks rookie Tommy Henry will start his seventh game of the season on the road against the San Diego Padres. He has a 3-3 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. This is a very interesting strikeout prop line because Henry has hovered around this 3.5 mark in each of his first six starts. He has had four games with exactly three strikeouts, one game with four and another with seven. His best strikeout performance was against the St. Louis Cardinals, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, so we know the upside is there. The Padres have a below-average strikeout rate, but this will be their first time seeing the young left-hander, which should give Henry the advantage. Stokastic projects Henry for 3.7 strikeouts in this spot. It’s hard to project Henry for many more strikeouts with a 16.5% strikeout rate, but this line is quite low. All Henry needs is four strikeouts, just like in his last start, and this juice of +120 is a fantastic value.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tommy Henry OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Mike Minor O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
It has been a bit of a struggle this season for not only Mike Minor, but for the Cincinnati Reds as a team. Minor has a 3-10 record through 16 starts with a 5.98 ERA, however, he may be turning the tide as he is 2-0 in his last three starts. Despite playing in their division, this will be Minor’s first start against the Chicago Cubs this season. Similar to the Reds, the Cubs are 20+ games below .500 and are coasting into the offseason. In terms of strikeouts, this is a great matchup for Minor. The Cubs not only rank 12th in strikeout rate, but that number increases against left-handers. Even with Minor’s career-low 17.4% strikeout rate this season, he has several games where he has gone over this 4.5 strikeout prop line with ease. Stokastic projects Minor for exactly 4.5 strikeouts as this is the last leg of our Dog Days parlay that has an xWin rate of 12%. Perfect time to hit a strikeout prop parlay as we have one more sleep until the NFL season begins!
Best MLB Pick Today: Mike Minor OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
