Ugh — yesterday’s article went 1-1-1, but we barely missed out on climbing our Jamal Murray ladder. He finished with 29, enough to cash his standard over, but one shy of the 30+ we bought at +250. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Brandon Ingram, Brandon Miller and Jalen Green. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at 286-281-17 (+29.3u) on the season. I’ve also got a pair of moneyline bets down on tonight’s action that you can find in my breakdown of today’s NBA odds. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Brandon Ingram & More
Brandon Ingram Player Prop
This spot is a great one for Brandon Ingram. His points prop of 23.5 would close higher should Jonas Valanciunas (questionable) or Zion Williamson (questionable) get ruled out, but their possible absences aren’t the logic for this pick. The already-bad Los Angeles Lakers are even worse when playing without rest, and Ingram should capitalize: Los Angeles allows a brutal 121.1 points per game when playing without rest this season.
Ingram also cooks from the zones the Lakers are worse at defending. This season, the Lakers have allowed the ninth-most mid-range field goals per game (4.5) to go with the most above-the-break 3’s (10.7). They rank fourth-worst (5.4) and third-worst (11.1) over the last seven games. Ingram ranks fourth in the NBA in mid-range makes per game (2.8). He ranks third in the Pels’ rotation from above the break (1.2).
Getting the Lakers without rest should help New Orleans’ highest-usage players. The last time we saw the Lakers play without rest, Dejounte Murray and Trae Young combined for 50 points. The time before that, Brandon Ingram scored 26 on New Year’s Eve. I’m laddering Ingram to 35 (+750 at FanDuel) through 25 (+110 at FanDuel) and 30 (+280 at FanDuel). With the Pels back in action tomorrow, there’s a chance Williamson or Valanciunas sit this one out, creating an opportunity for us to beat the closing number.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 23.5 Points -111 at FanDuel
Brandon Miller Player Prop
There is no denying that Brandon Miller rocks. The rookie second-overall pick is stepping up as the Charlotte Hornets trade away his teammates, and he is averaging 27.7 points per game over the last six contests. However, there’s also no denying that the Hornets are bad, and they’re 14.5-point road dogs tonight. Charlotte is back in action in the Queen City tomorrow. OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the points market for Brandon Miller. Our model has an ROI of 8.9% on points props at ESPNBet when you wager 12 hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Brandon Miller under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 26.5 is priced at only -125 (55.6%) at ESPNBet — which is worse than the true odds of -136 (57.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 25.5 for -127 (56%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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If you aren’t sold on our model’s market-based reasoning, Miller has surpassed the 27-point mark in just six games, four of which he played at home. Miller’s per-game average on the road dips to 15.4 from 17.3 at home. Although He scored 35 in 38 minutes the last time the Hornets played on the front end of a back-to-back, he was held to five points in 20 minutes the previous time the Hornets found themselves in this situation –and 24 points in 35 minutes the time before that.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Miller Under 26.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Jalen Green Player Prop
The Houston Rockets get the trade and injury-depleted Toronto Raptors tonight. Toronto just shipped off Dennis Schröder for Spencer Dinwiddie yesterday, a player they intend to cut. They also brought in Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji, who they’re listing as questionable for this one despite the tight turnaround.
The Raptors’ moves don’t fix their defensive issues, which have been an under-discussed story. Toronto ranks 23rd in defensive rating this year (117.7) but plummets to 28th over the last seven (125.2) and 30th over the last three (130.4).
Looking at just the last seven, Toronto ranks sixth-worst to above-the-break 3’s allowed per game (10.4), fourth-worst to mid-range shots (2.3) and second-worst in the restricted area (24.1). They have allowed the ninth-most points per game to shooting guards (24.3) and the most to small forwards (28.5) through that stretch.
I’m siding with Jalen Green to fry this bad Raptors defense. Fred VanVleet is out, leaving Amen Thompson to play point guard. Green is averaging 24 points per game over a three-game sample without VanVleet this year, including a 30-point performance on Tuesday. Green also ranks second among available players in field goals made per game from the restricted area (2.6), first from the mid-range (0.9) and first from above the break (1.9). I’m laddering him to 25 (+210 at DraftKings) as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points -105 at Hard Rock
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.