Bang — we may have started the NBA Finals with a 1-3 cold spell, but we’re up to 5-3 through Games 3 and 4. That brings us to 17-6 since the conference finals. Can I sustain my red-hot 73%-win rate? I think so: let’s get right into the NBA player prop picks I’ve found with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for Mavericks-Celtics Game 5.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Mavericks-Celtics Game 5
Kyrie Irving Player Prop
I’m not sure what the books are cooking here. When Kyrie Irving returned to the TD Garden for Game 1, he stunk it up by scoring 12 points in 37 minutes on splits of 32/0/NA. Game 2 wasn’t much better: he scored 16 on 39/0/100. He put together a good showing in Game 3, scoring 35 on 46/67/100, before disappearing again in Game 4 with 21 on 56/17/NA.
Irving is back in the Garden for Game 5. He hasn’t shown nearly enough in terms of efficiency or shot volume to warrant backing him to surpass the 23.5. We’ve seen Irving in 21 playoff games with the Mavericks, and he has cleared the 23.5 only seven times.
While it’s true that Irving has an impressive record in elimination games, I just don’t see him popping off tonight. Boston’s defensive rating in the postseason clocks in at a dominant 108.7, down from 110.6 in the regular season, and at 106.9 this series.
What’s more is that these teams have slowed down considerably this series. The average pace for it has been 94, which is way down from the 100.6 the Mavericks played at in the regular season. All of Dallas’ playoff series have featured a pace in the 92-to-94 range, so while the slower pace isn’t a unique trend for the finals, it suggests Irving’s reduced average of 22.5 points per game is the norm.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyrie Irving Under 23.5 Points -102 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyrie Irving points live odds page!
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
We faded Jaylen Brown in the assist column for Game 4, and he responded by dishing out just two. The books have since dropped his assist prop from 4.5 back to 3.5, but, at least at DraftKings, the under is again trading with positive expected value (+EV).
You’ll find Brown to stay under the 3.5 at +114 on DraftKings, but that’s despite every other public book taking action on the under 3.5 at odds between +100 and -110. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is still willing to price this at +105, but there’s just too much value to pass up at DraftKings.
Our tools work estimating a breakeven price for each bet, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more.
Once we have that breakeven price, we can calculate how much a bettor should wager on that market using the estimated ROI and a formula based upon the Kelly Criterion.
While the slight edges our tools have been identifying in the NBA Finals won’t change your life, we’re scoring tons of value on MLB strikeout props right now!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 Assists +114 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, see our Jaylen Brown assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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