This could be it. The final game of the NBA season could be tonight if Boston regains anywhere near the form we saw in the first three games. Of course, there’s always a chance Dallas will push back and win two straight — the latter coming on the Celtics home floor — but the odds are stacked against it. Boston is still dealing with a Kristaps Porzingis injury, while both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will need big time help to push this series another game.
It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: Choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning entry. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning entries
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Luka Doncic H/L Than 32.5 Points
Zero. That’s the number of times Luka Doncic cleared the above points total in four games against the Celtics. We’ve seen zero game scripts work in his favor where he takes over a game. While there are certainly different means to the same end; — Dallas was up by 50 at one point — it further proves how tough it’s been for Doncic to score in the high 30s. Boston has been truly effective in guarding both Doncic and Irving, forcing them to shoot their way out of any struggles. The Celtics also took away the corner 3, which has hurt Doncic ability to facilitate off the drive.
Then there’s the defense, continuing to wear down Doncic. Not to mention he’s still playing with a more than nagging injury. Boston is blowing by Dallas defenders at will — the lone exception was the Game 4 blowout. Doncic is being worked (to be fair, like most other Mavs players) when on the defensive side. It’s just been a brutal stretch of games for Doncic as evident by the results each night. While Doncic won’t stop shooting, it’s hard to imagine this deep into the series that he will finally make that push.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Luka Doncic Lower Than 32.5 Points
Jayson Tatum H/L Than 0.5 Blocks
OddsShopper identified this as a +EV play that is also stacked behind some strong reasoning. We know it’s been a struggle for consistent scoring from Tatum this series, even though he’s only hit 20-plus in one game so far. The Celtics are clearly in the driver’s seat without him being a dominant force. That hasn’t transferred over to increased results on the defensive side — despite an outlier last game.
Tatum played 42-plus minutes in Games 2 and 3; in neither of which did he record a block. One of those games he dropped 31, the other he struggled to finish with 18 points. While it may seem as arbitrary as it gets over a four-game sample size — two with one-plus blocks, the other with zero — there’s small correlation worth exploiting.
Tatum was overly aggressive in their blowout loss last game, finishing with a pair of blocks but four fouls. He simply can’t be that reckless in a spot that isn’t even needed from him. It’s not like they need him to fill the void left by Porzingis.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jayson Tatum Lower Than 0.5 Blocks
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