This column sits at a nice 28-7 through the last two weeks, which, while not perfect, is more than profitable enough for me. Let’s hope we keep making money tonight with our NBA player prop picks as the NBA in-season tournament gets underway. I’ve got action down on Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram and Al Horford in this spot. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Brandon Ingram & More
Brandon Ingram Player Prop
Few players can get the ball in the hoop from anywhere on the floor as effectively as Brandon Ingram. While the most optimal shots in basketball are layups (or dunks) and open 3-pointers, especially from the corner, Ingram has buttered his bread by making longer shots in the paint and a ton of midrange attempts. This year, he ranks sixth in shots made from the non-restricted paint per game (2.7) and first in shots made from midrange per game (3.1).
The Sacramento Kings have been unable to defend shots from either the non-restricted paint or midrange this year. They have coughed up the second-most shots per game from the former zone (10.3) and the third-most from the latter (5.3). We’ve seen Ingram in action against the Kings twice this year, and he tallied 31 and 23 points in 26 and 30 minutes of action, respectively, good for nearly a point per minute. Keep in mind Ingram averages 33.4 minutes per game. In a quasi-playoff game tonight, look for him to destroy the 21.5 books are taking action on.
The one concern some may have with Ingram is the fact C.J. McCollum returned a few games ago, but Ingram’s point total has cratered to the point where there is value despite McCollum’s availability — over a 62-game sample alongside McCollum, Ingram is averaging 23.8 points per game. Although he has surpassed the 22-point mark just once with McCollum this year, those performances were usually the fault of poor shooting efficiency, not a lack of shot volume. Tonight’s matchup with the Kings is a great buy-low spot for Ingram. I’m laddering this one through 24.5 up to 27.5.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Al Horford Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics should put on a high-scoring game, but how involved will Al Horford have to be? He is averaging 27.3 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) without Kristaps Porzingis this year, but with most of his scoring coming from the perimeter, not the paint, I’m skeptical of him tonight.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Al Horford under today because of the pricing disparity. The +100 (50%) on DraftKings is worse than the true odds for this wager of -110 (52.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Al Horford Under 21.5 PRA +100 at DraftKings
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
Tonight’s game between the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers should feature a ton of points. The Pacers have no interior defense to speak of, which has led them to allow the most made shots in the restricted area per game (21.9) and the most points allowed in the paint per game (63). Those numbers also correspond to the most points allowed per game to centers (26.5) and the sixth-most to power forwards (26.5).
With center Kristaps Porzingis sidelined, power forward Jayson Tatum becomes the player to target here, not center Al Horford. Tatum leads the Celtics in shots made (4.3) and attempted (5.7) in the restricted area per game. Over the last three games, all of which Porzingis has missed, Tatum leads the Celtics in usage rate (30.8%), up from his regular season average (29.2%).
Tatum is averaging 26.3 points per game without Porzingis, clearing the 30-point threshold just once — but three of those games came against teams that play at a below-average pace, including the league-slowest Chicago Bulls. Tatum racked up 34 against the much faster Atlanta Hawks without Porzingis, and Indiana plays slightly faster than Atlanta.
I feel great about backing Tatum to smash the 29.5 at odds of -120 on ESPNBet — enough to justify a 1.5-unit wager — but I also want action on him to reach at least the 35-point mark, especially since we’re yet to see how teams distribute minutes for the in-season tournament.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points -120 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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