The Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars will square off in a Monday Night Football matchup that, at the start of the season, looked to be a lot more competitive than this one does. The Jaguars are trading as 10-point favorites for the matchup. Let’s dive into the best Bengals-Jaguars player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Monday Night Football, including an Evan Engram pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Bengals-Jaguars Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday
Monday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Bengals: +375 | Jaguars: -500
Bengals +10: -110 | Jaguars -10: -110
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
Time: Monday, Dec. 4 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Bengals-Jaguars Player Prop Pick
Jake Browning Prop O/U 12.5 Rushing Yards
The Cincinnati Bengals are getting written off with quarterback Jake Browning under center in relief of Joe Burrow — they are a 10-point road underdog tonight against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure, Browning couldn’t help the Bengals beat the Ravens or the Steelers, but Cincinnati at least kept the latter game close. While I’m not buying the Bengals to cover tonight or anything, I probably do have more trust in Browning than the market does, especially as a rusher. Browning has rushing attempts for 48 yards, but two of those were kneel-downs.
I trust Browning to go over this number after recording just nine rushing yards against the Steelers because of the matchup. The Jaguars just allowed C.J. Stroud to gallop for a team-high 47 rushing yards and a score last week. Neither Will Levis nor Brock Purdy did much on the ground in the preceding weeks, but Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett combined for 28 yards on the ground in four attempts before that. The Jaguars have allowed 19.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, which, while not terrible, isn’t good enough to justify Browning’s rushing yardage prop sitting at just 12.5. Browning is averaging 8.3 yards per scramble through six attempts, so if he can maintain that pace, we just need two from him tonight.
Bengals-Jaguars Player Prop Pick: Jake Browning Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -120 at ESPNBet
Bengals-Jaguars Model Player Prop
Evan Engram O/U 4.5 Receptions
Now that you have my NFL player prop pick, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Evan Engram on the reception markets because of the big odds disparity between ESPNBet and the rest of the market. You’ll find the over for this prop priced at -135 (57.5%) on ESPNBet but at -173 (63.4%) on Pinnacle and -160 (61.5%) on DraftKings. That’s more than enough value to warrant a wager on the over.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
In this case, the model wants action on Engram because the true odds are -149 (59.8%), which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the -135 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $41. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Bengals-Jaguars Player Prop: Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions at ESPNBet
Bengals-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Tight end Evan Engram hasn’t scored a touchdown this year. That’s despite him earning 82 targets from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, which he has turned into 64 catches and 524 receiving yards. Engram is on pace for his most productive season ever in those three stats, but the touchdowns just haven’t followed. Engram had caught just 52 of his 37 targets for 356 yards and one score through 11 weeks last year.
While I am somewhat concerned by Engram’s lack of volume in the red zone — he has seen just three targets inside the 20-yard line and just one inside the 10-yard line — Cincinnati’s defense makes Engram an interesting player to target. The Bengals have allowed only the 12th-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends (4) despite coughing up the fifth-most receptions (70) and the second-most receiving yards (779). That feels a bit lucky, and regression could be coming for them soon.
We can get Engram at odds of +270 (27%) to find paydirt on FanDuel, which is better than the +227 (30.5%) you’ll find at Pinnacle. Although Engram hasn’t attracted much attention in the red zone this year, he finished last year with eight targets inside the 20 and three inside the 10. While he is outpacing his 2022 production overall, he is trailing his 2022 red-zone production, and this is a good spot to bet on some positive regression.
Bengals-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Evan Engram +270 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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