Today marks the start of knockout play for the NBA In-Season Tournament, which means there are just two games on the slate. The action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET with Celtics-Pacers, followed by Pelicans-Kings in the nightcap. These matchups feature the second and third seeds, while the first and fourth seeds will square off tomorrow, with the winners advancing to the final four in Las Vegas. Both games have relatively high totals of 242.5 and 237, with close spreads of 5 and 3 points. It should be a fun double-header to watch, especially if we can win some money on PrizePicks with Jrue Holiday.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA NBA picks and player projections for Monday, Dec. 4.
PrizePicks NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 4
Jrue Holiday M/L 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Celtics are the lower seed in the tournament but are still 5-point road favorites in Indiana tonight. Jrue Holiday gets a favorable matchup in a pace-up spot against the Pacers, who run 104.14 possessions a game, the most in the NBA. Not only are the Pacers No. 1 in pace, but they’re 29th in defensive rating.
Holiday is averaging 24.8 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) on the season and 24.3 in nine road games. Kristaps Porzingis is out for Boston tonight, and in three games this season without him, Holiday is averaging 28.3 PRA. Two of those games were against Philadelphia, and the third was against Chicago, who ranks 30th in pace. The Positive EV Bets tool confirmed the more play by revealing that all other operators either heavily favor the over or have this prop at 26.5.
Bruce Brown M/L 24.5 Fantasy Score
Bruce Brown is averaging 28.8 fantasy points over his last five games and 1.7 steals + blocks at home. This plays to our advantage on PrizePicks, as they favor defensive stats, awarding 3 points for both blocks and steals. Brown is also attempting 4.5 3’s and grabbing 4.7 rebounds at home compared to 2.9 and 3.4 on the road.
Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with an illness (I’m guessing he will play), but if he’s unable to go, this prop will likely jump towards the 30 mark. Either way, with a high total and a meaningful game at home, I like Brown to surpass 24.5 fantasy points tonight.
Zion Williamson M/L 24.5 Points
Zion Williamson is averaging 24.6 points per game on the road this season, 2 more points than at home. The Kings rank 20th in opponent points in the paint, while Williamson ranks second in the NBA with 18.6 points in the paint per game. Williamson is playing three more minutes and taking four more field goals on the road than he is at home.
C.J. McCollum is back in the lineup for New Orleans, and in 32 career games with him, Williamson is averaging 25.3 points per game. These teams have already played twice this season, with the Pelicans winning both games. Williamson shot 69% and cleared 25 points in both of the games. I expect him to dominate the paint tonight in a pace-up spot in Sacramento.
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.