Can we catch a break, please? On Saturday, we cashed our Devin Booker over, but we lost a Scottie Barnes under by the hook, and Ben Simmons decided to score a season-high 13 points instead of passing. And did I mention I was on Phoenix moneyline? Thank you, Stephen Curry. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Tyrese Maxey, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Nikola Vucevic. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +22.3u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Maxey & More
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
The Philadelphia 76ers will remain without Joel Embiid for the foreseeable future. That’s bad news for Tyrese Maxey, who has struggled with efficiency when the superstar center sits. Maxey’s shooting splits with Embiid (46/40/89) are far worse than without him (42/33/79). His scoring output even dips by 0.2 to 25.4. While Maxey has begun to look like a stud second option, he hasn’t looked like much more.
Maxey draws a brutal matchup with the defensively efficient Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Cleveland ranks second in defensive rating on the year (110) and first through the last seven games (105.7). Pair that with their 21st-ranked pace (98.7), which sits at 19th (98.5) over the last seven, and you’ve got a recipe for unders, especially for point guards, against whom the Cavs rank first in points allowed per game over the last seven (18).
Maxey’s points prop is trading at 26.5, but you can buy the under 27.5 for -125 at ESPNBet. I advise pairing that with the under 25.5 (+110 at ESPNBet) instead of just playing the 26.5 straight. Maxey scored 30 versus the Cavaliers earlier in the season, but that was with Embiid in the lineup. He has cleared the 27.5-point mark (and the 25.5-point mark) in just five of his 14 starts without Embiid this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 27.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
If you’ve tailed my bets all season, you’d know that Jaren Jackson Jr. has been by far our most profitable player to target. We’re up to 9-1 (+6.1u) on him this year. OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the points market for Jackson today, and our model has an ROI of 5.8% on all NBA player prop bets at DraftKings this season when you wager two hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 27.5 is priced at -125 (55.6%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -138 (58%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 26.5 for -133 (57.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 27.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
Nikola Vucevic Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks will host the Chicago Bulls on Monday night, and if there’s one thing we know about this year’s Hawks, it’s that they cannot play defense. Atlanta ranks a dreadful 28th in defensive rating this season (119.8) and 27th over the last seven games (119.6). Interior scoring has been their Achilles’ heel — Atlanta ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint this year (55.8) and 26th over the last seven (56.3).
But we can get more specific than just saying Atlanta’s defense is bad in the paint. They’ve allowed the second-most made field goals in the restricted area (21), the most corner 3’s (4.5) and the 12th-most above-the-break 3’s (9.5) this season. Over the last seven, they have allowed the most (23.9), seventh-most (4.2) and third-most from those zones, respectively (11.4).
Opposing big men have taken advantage of Atlanta lately, especially those who can also shoot from beyond the arc. Jeff Green, who started for Houston on Saturday, scored 19 and went 4-for-7 from beyond the arc. Paul Reed scored 12 but failed to make his two 3-pointers. Kristaps Porzingis scored 31 and went 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.
Anyway, that’s why I’m getting action on a Nikola Vucevic over tonight. The star center ranks second among active Bulls in shots made in the restricted area per game (2.8) and third in shots made from above the break (1). Those totals sit at 2.4 and 1.4 over the last three games. While he’ll need more than his usual number of shots to cash the over, he should get them tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 21.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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