Last week started hot but cooled off quickly. Variance was unkind to us as several picks lost in the last few minutes of games, but this week gives us a chance to turn things back in the right direction. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Brandon Miller, Nikola Jokic and Ayo Dosunmu. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +21u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Brandon Miller Player Prop
The Charlotte Hornets will face the Detroit Pistons in a battle of NBA bottom-dwellers this evening. Neither squad has anything to play for but the lottery and player development, but that hasn’t stopped them both from winning games lately. The Hornets just beat the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday and were led by 24 points from Miles Bridges and 23 from Brandon Miller.
Detroit’s defensive struggles should benefit Miller more than they benefit Bridges. Over the last seven games, now that both Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart are back, they have been an above-average team in terms of shots allowed per game in the restricted area, where Bridges feasts. However, they have been the third-worst team in the mid-range, allowing 7.6 shots per contest. Miller is averaging the eighth-most field goals made per game in that zone since the All-Star Break.
Miller has stepped up since the February 8 trade deadline. Following that date, he has averaged 18.4 points per game (up from his season average of 16.9). He has been even better in March, averaging 22 points per contest over a four-game sample. In a rare winnable game for the Hornets, look for him to make his mark by tallying at least 21 points.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Miller Over 20.5 Points -111 at FanDuel
Ayo Dosunmu Player Prop
Ayo Dosunmu and the Chicago Bulls are home dogs to the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Although the Mavs aren’t known for their defense, I have faith in this under for Dosunmu today. The Mavs give up plenty of assists to their opponents, but, because we’re beating the market by far too much with this Dosunmu under, I’ve got to have some exposure to it.
OddsShopper Premium loves this under for Dosunmu today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Ayo Dosunmu under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 4.5 assists will cost you +115 (46.5%) at ESPNBet, which is a better number than the true odds of +105 (48.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 4.5 for -112 (53.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Under 4.5 Assists +115 at ESPNBet
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will line up against the Toronto Raptors tonight as a massive 14.5-point home favorite. The Raps won’t have several key pieces, including Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Bruce Brown (questionable) and RJ Barrett (questionable) could both miss this one, too. But despite Toronto’s shorthandedness — or perhaps because of it — I recommend fading Nikola Jokic in the points market this evening.
Jokic already takes a step back as a scorer at home, and he should be able to take even more of one in this spot. He is averaging only 26 points per game on the year, which dips to 24.9 at home, 25.9 in games the Nuggets win and 25.8 since the All-Star Break. Jokic has eclipsed the 27-point mark we need him to stay under tonight in just four of his games since the pause, all of which were on the road or stayed within a double-digit margin.
Jokic hasn’t gone for 27-plus points in a double-digit home win since he scored exactly 27 versus the Portland Trail Blazers on February 2. He has failed to clear the 27-point mark in his last seven home starts versus the Raptors as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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