To be blunt, Friday sucked. Brandon Ingram started hot, scoring 16 of the requisite 24 points we needed from him in the first quarter, but finished the game with 22. Whatever. Let’s bounce back today. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Devin Booker, Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at 287-289-17 (+25.1u) on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Devin Booker & More
Devin Booker Player Prop
Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns will visit the Golden State Warriors tonight. The Suns are a slight 1.5-point road favorite for this one, but I think that margin should be wider, in large part because of what Booker adds to this offense. Booker has been lethal from just about all over the floor, especially from mid-range and beyond the arc.
The Warriors, now being discussed as a team on the rise, haven’t beaten many good teams in their recent “hot” streak. Their wins came over the injury-depleted 76ers (twice), the Grizzlies, the Nets and the Pacers. This Warriors team lost to the Hawks and Kings during their alleged hot streak, took. I’m buying the Suns on the moneyline and trust Booker to score over 27.5 points.
Booker leads the Suns in shots made per game from the non-restricted paint (2.3), from where he is converting an elite 51.9% of his looks, and from above the break (2), from where he is converting a steady 37.1%. This season, the Warriors are allowing an NBA-high number of shots from the non-restricted paint (11.7) and rank 13th-worst from above the break (9.5). Over the last nine — their so-called hot streak — they rank second-worst (10.8) and 13th-worst (9.3), just about their usual season rates.
The Suns are 3-0 versus the Warriors this season, with Booker tallying point totals of 32, 25 and 32 against them. Booker is averaging 30.3 points per game against the Warriors since the start of last season over a six-game sample, cashing the over four times and in both of his road starts. I trust him to get the job done again tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points -110 at FanDuel
Scottie Barnes Player Prop
The Toronto Raptors scored a tight win over the Houston Rockets last night — despite Houston opting to bench two starters, trusting Jeff Green and Aaron Holiday in their closing lineup. Scottie Barnes had to play 35 minutes, and he still scored only 13 points. He now gets a tough Cleveland Cavaliers defense.
OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the points market for Scottie Barnes. Our model has an ROI of 5% on al NBA player prop bets at BetMGM this season when you wager two hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Scottie Barnes under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 21.5 is priced at only -115 (53.5%) at BetMGM — which is worse than the true odds of -122 (55%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 21.5 for -139 (58.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Scottie Barnes Under 21.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
Ben Simmons Player Prop
Yep, we’re really betting on Ben Simmons tonight. After a disastrous performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers in which he tallied an embarrassing six points, two assists and one rebound over 20 minutes of floor time, Simmons should bounce back against a vastly inferior and faster-paced San Antonio Spurs team.
The Nets have a few more bodies available for this one like Dennis Schröder and Dorian Finney-Smith, but Cameron Johnson and Day’Ron Sharpe remain out, which should free up some rebound chances for Simmons to exploit. Likewise, with Spencer Dinwiddie traded at the deadline, Simmons should get more assist opportunities as well.
Simmons has made eight starts this season, and in those games, he is averaging 9.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists per contest — good for 15.5 per game. While there are some concerns about his minutes, he averages 0.54 rebounds and assists per minute, putting him on pace to cash the over 11.5 if he plays more than 22 minutes.
I’m backing Simmons to record a double-double (+950 at FanDuel) and tally over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-125 at FanDuel). The books never really adjusted Simmons’ prop totals to an efficient number after his return, but we’re able to get them at a discount after his implosion versus the Cavaliers. He had tallied one double-double while averaging 16.4 rebounds and assists per game in his return to the Nets before that game. Let’s treat it as an outlier.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Ben Simmons Over 11.5 Rebounds & Assists -125 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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