Yesterday’s NBA slate produced a 3-1 showing for my NBA card on Discord, as we cashed an over for Evan Mobley along with unders for Scottie Barnes and Cade Cunningham. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for LeBron James, Devin Booker and Jerami Grant. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +22.6 on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for LeBron James & More
LeBron James Player Prop
Telling you to fade LeBron James just days after he single-handedly willed his Los Angeles Lakers to a win over the Los Angeles Clippers may seem risky, but it’s worth it against the Denver Nuggets. LeBron is still averaging only 25.3 points per game this year, below his points prop at several books (26.5), and only 24.2 points per game versus the Nuggets in regular-season games dating back to last year.
LeBron’s splits also point to value here. This is a home game for the Lakers, and he averages just 23.9 points per game here. This game would also mark LeBron’s third game in four days, and, while we don’t seem him play in this situation as much as we used to, he tallied 26 points or fewer in four of his last five times when active in this situation. That sample includes two games of 20 or fewer points to boot.
The Nuggets are a brutal matchup for LeBron, too. They’re allowing the fewest points per game to small forwards on the year (18.3), through the last 15 games (14) and even through the last seven (13.8). They’re also allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to power forwards this season (22.9).
NBA Player Prop Pick: LeBron James Under 26.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Devin Booker Player Prop
The Phoenix Suns find themselves in a less-than-ideal spot on their schedule. The Suns will host the Houston Rockets tonight before hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder, who aren’t playing today, tomorrow night. Look for the Suns to get creative with their rotations if they get out to an early lead to prevent their stars from playing fatigued tomorrow. I like this under for Devin Booker, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Before we talk about why the model likes this pick, let me explain why I do. This game marks the fourth meeting between the Rockets and Suns this year. To date, Booker is averaging 26.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and four assists against them — exactly 36 PRA. He stayed under that number in two of those three games, just not their most recent one.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Brook Lopez under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 36.5 PRA will cost you -105 (51.2%) at Tipico, which is a better number than the true odds of -113 (53%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 35.5 for -110 (52.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Booker Under 36.5 PRA -105 at Tipico
Jerami Grant Player Prop
The Portland Trail Blazers will play the Memphis Grizzlies again tonight. Last night, the Blazers scored a 30-point win. They tallied 13 steals and eight blocks in the win, which makes sense, as Memphis was without Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. With those four out again tonight, this one should be just as sloppy.
Jerami Grant didn’t get in on the fun defensively. He recorded zero blocks and steals over 33 minutes of action. That could change tonight, however. Grant is averaging 1.4 blocks and steals per game this year, which jumps to 1.7 when he plays without rest. He is also averaging exactly two steals and blocks per game since the All-Star Break despite his lack of production on Friday night.
We’re still waiting on injury reports for this contest, but if Grant plays, I expect him to be more involved as a defender.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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