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Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Tuesday, April 23

Ugh… yesterday’s article scored a 1-1 split, losing a Max Strus over that I loved (the shots were there!) while cashing a Kyle Lowry under. I want to go 2-0 tonight, and with three games on tap, I think we can do it! I’ve identified two spots worth getting action on with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for James Harden and Grayson Allen. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More

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Grayson Allen Player Prop

The Phoenix Suns will look to get revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves after a brutal Game 1 loss tonight. Shooting guard Grayson Allen (questionable) is looking to bounce back from an ankle sprain and a tough four-point showing, but I think he can do it. Allen was seen getting shots up at Monday’s shootaround, but it’s still unclear whether he’ll suit up. If he does, I love his over.

For as clownable as Allen’s Game 1 performance was, he did get good looks. He attempted three field goals — all from beyond the arc — and none of which were contested. If you give Allen three open 3’s again, he’ll cook you. Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage this season (46.1%). He converted 62.5% of his 3’s against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the regular season, shooting 10-for-16 while averaging 19 points per game.

While some may worry about the potential lack of volume in the playoffs for Allen, as he does have to share the floor with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker, his regular-season usage rate wasn’t abysmal alongside those guys. With Booker, it clocked in at 14.7%; with Beal, 14.6%; with Durant, 14.5%. He’ll get his. A bounce-back showing in Game 2 should be in the cards.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Grayson Allen Over 11.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Grayson Allen points live odds page!

James Harden Player Prop

The Los Angeles Clippers took down the Dallas Mavericks despite missing Kawhi Leonard in Game 1, largely thanks to a 28-point performance from James Harden. The veteran shot an absurd 47/55/100 and made 50% of his contested shots. Those numbers aren’t sustainable, and the NBA playoffs are the prime time to buy low and sell high, which is what both I and our NBA +EV betting tools recommend doing tonight. The model reaches that conclusion because we’re getting the under at a price with positive expected value (+EV):

If you back Harden to stay under the 19.5 for -110 at BetMGM or Hard Rock, you’re beating the market by a ton. Most public books have this at -120 or so, but Pinnacle (-143), a sharp book, and Caesars (-127) are charging a lot more for it, and our model projects the true odds (a breakeven price) to be -125.

By using OddsShopper Premium, you can easily find bets with +EV like this one every day. We know this is a +EV bet because of how the model works — it indexes the odds across the market; adjusts for book sharpness, hold and more; and generates the aforementioned true odds, which the -110 clears by a wide margin.

When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Wagers like this one, when placed over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine. While you won’t win every bet, and your bankroll won’t transform overnight, we have the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.

For more picks, sign up for OddsShopper Premium. You can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week (or month) for 50% off (regular price of $14.95 weekly, $49.95 monthly)! Got more questions? Read our guide to using +EV tools!

NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 19.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our James Harden points live odds page!

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OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

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