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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, April 23 (2024)

Yesterday saw us go 1-1-1, cashing a Brandon Pfaadt ticket with the help of our MLB betting model but losing a Lars Nootbaar pick. Let’s get back to profitability tonight, especially with FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday on tap. I’ve got action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you have yet to give our +EV betting tools a whirl, you can get them for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!

Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.

MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, April 23

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MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez

The Houston Astros and Yordan Alvarez have been mainstays in this column all season, and with it being FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, we’re going back to the well tonight. Alvarez draws a matchup with LHP Jordan Wicks, whose 4.91 xERA and 92.5 mph fastball velocity (28th percentile) make this matchup a juicy one.

Alvarez, a lefty, has murdered same-handed pitchers this year for a .400/.462/.714 slash line and three home runs. He wasn’t quite as dominant last year, slashing .295/.385/.507 against them, but he still went yard six times.

It’s impossible not to respect what Alvarez is doing behind the plate. He sports a .341 xBA and .693 xSLG, which rank in the 97th and 98th percentiles, respectively, with five actual and 4.5 expected home runs to his name.

Tonight’s matchup is in Wrigley Field, and while the MLB weather report calls for a chance of some precipitation, it also calls for wind gusts out of right-center field, which should benefit a lefty like Alvarez.

The Astros might be off to a terrible start, but Alvarez isn’t the one responsible, and we’re getting at least some exposure to Chicago’s bats by playing Alvarez to go yard for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Make sure to mix in his total bases, too!

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases -130 & Home Run +255 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!


MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tommy Henry

The Arizona Diamondbacks will stay on the road for another game against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. It’s LHP Tommy Henry on the mound for them today, whose abysmal 5.56 xERA (18th percentile) and 20.2% strikeout rate (36th percentile) have a tough task ahead. Our MLB betting model loves an under for Henry tonight — but it doesn’t use projections to reach that conclusion. Instead, it recommends this bet because we’re beating the market substantially, giving this play positive expected value (+EV):

Our tools reveal that betting on Henry to stay under 4.5 strikeouts will cost you only -125 at BetMGM. Just about every other public book has a worse price, and Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced all the way down at -197! Caesars also lists this one for -133.

So how does the model work? You can read our guide to using +EV betting tools here — but here’s the rundown. It indexes the odds from across the market; adjusts them for hold, book sharpness and other factors; and identifies the breakeven point (called “true odds”) for each bet.

Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.

For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.

MLB Betting Model Pick: Tommy Henry Under 4.5 Strikeouts -125 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Tommy Henry total strikeouts live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia

I love betting on home runs, and I love using our +EV MLB betting tools to do so. While I still consider several projection-based factors (read our guide to home run betting for my notes), no home run bet is a good one without a good price. We’re getting Garcia to go yard at +330 on FanDuel, beating Pinnacle (+218) and the rest of the market by a wide margin.

Garcia will take on RHP Logan Gilbert, who has coughed up four actual and 3.9 expected home runs. Garcia leads the Rangers with six actual and 5.3 expected home runs, but a whopping eight of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Globe Life Field. This also makes for a great Dinger Tuesday pick due to the high total (9) and Texas’ RHP Dane Dunning struggling with the long ball.

But even if Garcia doesn’t mash his seventh home run of the year tonight (and his ninth batted ball that would’ve counted at his home park), bets like this one, when wagered over the long term, will yield meaningful results. The key is building enough of a sample to insulate yourself from variance.

The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Tuesday, April 23, include Adolis Garcia, who takes on the Mariners...

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia Home Run +330 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adolis Garcia home run live odds page!

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