We went a brutal 1-2 yesterday, but at least we cashed a +140 ticket for Precious Achiuwa to help us get close to breaking even. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Dejounte Murray, Jonathan Kuminga and Cade Cunningham. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +19.5u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Dejounte Murray & More
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors will visit the Washington Wizards tonight in what I see as a smash spot for forward Jonathan Kuminga. He has cooled down a bit of late, but he is still averaging 18.9 points per game since the start of 2024. Kuminga is a dominant interior scorer who should feast against Washington’s non-existent interior defense, especially now that Daniel Gafford is gone.
The Wizards have quit trying to defend the paint. Over the last 15 games, Washington has coughed up the most made field goals per game in the restricted area (22.3) on the highest conversion rate (73.9%). Unsurprisingly, this corresponds to the most points allowed in the paint per game (62.1) and the third-most points allowed to power forwards (29.3). Also over the last 15, Kuminga leads the Warriors in points in the paint per game (12.8) and both field goals made (4.2) and attempted (5.7) in the restricted area.
Kuminga’s points prop of 17.5 is a bit awkward. On the one hand, he is averaging 19.1 points per game over his last 15 contests; on the other, he is averaging 14 per game over his last seven. So which sample is more meaningful? The Warriors’ last seven games include a pair of back-to-backs in which Kuminga played less than 30 minutes in three of the four contests. Even if Kuminga’s minutes remain below the 30 mark, he only needed 27 minutes to hang 22 points on the Wizards back in late December.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 17.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
Cade Cunningham Player Prop
Cade Cunningham went over the 21.5 with ease last night, racking up 32 in a near-win over the New York Knicks. He’ll now play a similarly slow-paced Chicago Bulls team, and, with his point total ticking up by one, OddsShopper Premium and I agree once again that there’s an edge to exploit here. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
To illustrate the significance of Chicago’s pace — despite ranking a mid-pack 15th in defensive efficiency (115.1), Chicago’s second-slowest pace has helped the club rank first in points allowed to point guards per game (21.2). The Bulls have picked the pace up a little bit over the last 15 games, but they’re still allowing the third-fewest points per game to the position (20).
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Cade Cunningham under today due to yet another market inefficiency. The under 22.5 points is priced at -105 (51.2%) at Hard Rock, which is a better number than the true odds of -121 (57.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 22.5 for -140 (58.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 22.5 Points -105 at Hard Rock
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
This bet is my favorite of the night. Dejounte Murray draws a laughable Utah Jazz defense that is allowing the most assists per game to point guards, both this year (10.7) and over the last 15 games (11.9).
When these teams met in Utah earlier in the month, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined to dish out 14 assists. Now Young is out, leaving Murray to pick up the slack.
Since joining the Hawks, Murray has played in 13 games without Young. He is averaging 8.6 assists per contest. This season, that number ticks up to nine over the six-game sample, including an 11-assist showing in his last start.
Murray tallied 16 potential assists in that game, so while he converted at a likely unsustainable clip (68.8%), he could easily smash in the assist column tonight versus a bad Utah defense.
A key facet of Utah’s struggles has been their poor play in transition. The Jazz lead the NBA in fast-break points allowed per game (18.1). With no Young, Murray should benefit from plenty of chances to dish transition assists. His assists prop is trading at a fair 8.5, but you’ll find that number priced at only -130 on BetMGM. I locked that one in along with Murray to go over the 10.5 (+170 at DraftKings) and to hit the 14+ (+1000 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 8.5 Assists -130 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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