In a brutal slate of NBA on TNT, we’ve got the Donovan Mitchell-less Cleveland Cavaliers facing the Boston Celtics and the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns facing the Denver Nuggets. Yikes. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Miles Bridges, Pascal Siakam and Isaiah Stewart. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Miles Bridges & More
Isaiah Stewart Player Prop
The Detroit Pistons will visit the Miami Heat tonight, and while the Heat are a massive 11.5-point favorite, I want action on one of Detroit’s role players, Isaiah Stewart. The Heat tend to leave guys like Stewart open to stifle their opponents’ top-scoring options. In this case, I expect Cade Cunningham to get that kind of attention, which should leave Stewart open for a few easy layups or corner 3’s.
Stewart isn’t an elite shooter, but he’s good where the Heat let role players beat them. Miami has allowed the fourth-most field goals from the corner (4.3) and the fifth-most from the non-restricted paint (8.9) this season. Over the last 15 games, they have allowed the eighth-most (4) and the third-most (11) makes from those zones per game. This season, Stewart has taken 2.6 field goals per game from those zones. That ticks up to 3 per game since the Bojan Bogdanovic deal.
Stewart’s recent production, both since the Bogdanovic deal and against the Heat, are additional reasons to buy him tonight. He went for 14 against Miami earlier this season and 11 in his lone start appearance against them last year. In his three games since Bogdanovic got dealt, Stewart has scored no fewer than 10 points with an average of 13.7 per game.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Isaiah Stewart Over 9.5 Points -125 at Fanatics
Pascal Siakam Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks will do battle in the American Airlines Center tonight. Star forward Pascal Siakam is averaging only 20.8 points per game with the Pacers and 20.6 when playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, yet his points prop is trading all the way up at 22.5. I like this under, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Pascal Siakam under today due to the clear market inefficiency. The under 22.5 points will cost you -125 (55.6%) at Hard Rock, which is a better number than the true odds of -138 (58%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 22.5 for -158 (61.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Pascal Siakam Under 22.5 Points -125 at Hard Rock
Miles Bridges Player Prop
The Charlotte Hornets will face the Orlando Magic this evening. They’re without several pieces who have made an impact lately, including Cody Martin and Seth Curry. With Charlotte trading as a big 8.5-point underdog to the NBA’s best team at covering the spread, I’m fading the Hornets tonight, and it all starts with forward Miles Bridges.
Bridges is averaging exactly 25.5 points and assists over his last 15 games, which is exactly where his points and assists prop is trading. However, tonight’s matchup isn’t like most — the Magic allow the fewest assists per game (24.2), the ninth-fewest made field goals per game in the restricted area (16.6) and play at the fifth-slowest pace.
Recent trends only point to more value on the under in this spot. Over the last 15 games, Orlando ranks seventh in assists allowed (25.3), fifth in restricted area field goals allowed (15) and third-slowest in pace (95.8). That corresponds to the fourth-fewest points allowed per game to both small forwards and power forwards — as well as the fifth- and seventh-fewest assists allowed per game to the respective positions.
Bridges relies on easy interior looks to score points and dish out assists. A whopping 47.5% of Bridges’ made field goals this year were shots that he took in the restricted area. Over the last 15 games, despite the departures of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward, that number still sits at 47%. Don’t expect anything to come easy for Bridges tonight, which should keep him below his recent averages.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Miles Bridges Under 25.5 Points & Assists -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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