It was fun while it lasted. From Nov. 20 to Dec. 4, we were on a 31-7 tear with nary a day worse than 2-1. Last night saw that streak come to an end with a 1-2 showing. While it was still a breakeven night for me — both the NBA player prop pick I gave out via Twitter and the late add I gave out on our OddsShopper Premium Discord hit, bringing us to 3-4 (+0.1u) — I’m looking to get this column back to 3-0 and at least 2-1. I’ve got action down on Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Spencer Dinwiddie in this spot. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Joel Embiid & More
Joel Embiid Player Prop
The Washington Wizards can’t defend the paint, which allowed Joel Embiid to roast them for a monstrous 48-point showing 31 minutes back in early November. Embiid scored 34 points on the floor and another 14 at the free-throw line. The 76ers ended the game with 62 total points in the paint, of which Embiid scored 24 (38.7%). I expect a similar showing from him in this spot.
Let’s circle back to Washington’s defense because it’s terrible. The Wizards are allowing the most points per game to centers (26.2), the second most made shots per game in the restricted area (21.6) and the second-most points in the paint (58.9). The Wizards are also playing at the second-fastest pace, which has helped opposing offenses capitalize on a few extra possessions.
Embiid should also benefit from scheduling. The Philadelphia 76ers won’t play again until Friday, and after that, they won’t play again until Monday. They haven’t played since last Friday, either, and Embiid got that one off. Look for him to smash in his return to the floor.
You can get a bit of a deal on this NBA player prop if you act fast. You’ll find the over 31.5 priced at -105 on ESPNBet, but pretty much every other book has it priced at -120 or shorter. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at -131. FanDuel even has his total set to 32.5 with the over priced at -113. I don’t know how long ESPNBet will hang this off-market number, so make sure to jump on it while you can.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Joel Embiid Over 31.5 Points -105 at ESPNBet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder and star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have arrived. No longer are they fighting for lottery picks or scrapping to get into the play-in tournament — at 13-6, the Thunder trail only the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference. But despite his strong start to the year, neither myself nor OddsShopper Premium has much faith in SGA against the Houston Rockets — at least relative to the odds at FanDuel. Houston plays at the NBA’s third-slowest pace and ranks fifth in defensive rating. The Rockets rank 17th in points allowed per game to point guards (24.2), 28th in rebounds allowed (7.1) and first in assists allowed (6.5).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Shai-Gilgeous Alexander under today entirely because of the pricing disparity. The -122 (55%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -132 (56.9%) and the posted odds of -136 (57.6%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 42.5 PRA -122 at FanDuel
Spencer Dinwiddie Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks will host the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and we’re getting some exposure to Spencer Dinwiddie against Atlanta’s putrid defense. The Hawks are coughing up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (55.4) and the second-most assists (28.7). The Hawks are also coughing up the second-most assists per game to point guards (10), which should benefit Dinwiddie significantly.
Dinwiddie has gone off in the assist column against the Hawks lately. Over a five-game sample, four of which came with him on the Nets, Dinwiddie has averaged 9.8 assists per game, cracking double digits in three of those contests. He tallied 12 assists against the Hawks just two weeks back.
Dinwiddie is a mega-volume guy with Ben Simmons sidelined. He is averaging just 6.3 assists, 10.8 potential assists and 46.3 passes made per game this year, but those numbers have jumped to 6.8, 11.9 and 54.2 over the last 12 games, all of which Dinwiddie played without Simmons.
You can find Dinwiddie to go over 7.5 assists priced at +100 on DraftKings and Tipico. Although he has cleared that number in only five of his 13 appearances without Simmons, he posted his season-high against the Hawks a few weeks back, and we’ve seen him do so in four of his last five games against the Hawks. Dinwiddie also averaged 9.1 assists per game with the Nets last year, beating the 7.5 in 17 of his 26 appearances for the team. If you’re in Ohio or New Jersey and haven’t signed up for Tipico, check out our promo code to unlock some bonus bets!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 7.5 Assists +100 at Tipico
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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